Momentum Review: Macro Segments (May 2025 Edition)

Dear readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

This mid-week update is all about my momentum review. Each week, I analyze a different curated list of ETFs or stock tickers covering either key market segments, sectors, or individual stocks. I focus on understanding where we are in the cycle with a mid-to-long-term perspective. My momentum model combines 3 elements: performance, trend, and key levels. This structured approach helps identify strengths, weaknesses, and emerging opportunities across various market segments.

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SUMMARY

The bounce from the April lows remains intact, but equities are now testing a key confluence zone that includes notably the 30-week EMA. A (sustained) bullish breakout here would suggest the worst may be behind us, similar to the quick recovery after the 2020 Covid crash.

The crypto space has seen significant gains in the past month, and Bitcoin in particular shows strong leadership. Bitcoin will likely be the first to break to new all-time highs if short-term momentum stays supportive. It remains the largest and best-performing position in my Macro ETF portfolio.

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My Analytical Approach

My momentum framework is divided into three parts: performance, trends, and key levels.

I like to see securities trading within 5% of their 1-year high, which indicates strong momentum and minimal overhead resistance. Additionally, I look for signs of accelerating gains in recent periods.

I assess the strength of a ETF’s weekly chart using a trend rating system on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above indicates a strong trend worth holding. A score of 2 or below signals weakening momentum and suggests preparing an exit plan.

My trend rating is based on five criteria centered around the 9- and 30-week exponential moving averages (EMAs):

1. The 9-week EMA is above the 30-week EMA (most important).

2. Price is trading above the 9-week EMA.

3. Price is trading above the 30-week EMA.

4. The 9-week EMA trend line is rising.

5. The 30-week EMA trend line is rising.

In the core of an uptrend, the 9-week EMA often acts as support, while a confirmed loss of the 30-week EMA with no reaction typically suggests a trend change on the horizon.

I complement my analysis by looking at key levels. Support and resistance levels are critical technical analysis components, serving as indicators for potential trend reversals or continuations. My preferred method is to look for previous highs and lows, any levels where the trend has historically changed, and price gaps.

Why This Framework?

I developed this framework to ride uptrends confidently and to filter out noise from the price action. Breakouts can be messy—ranging markets, failed breakouts, and sharp reversals are all challenges we face as swing traders. Even the best uptrend on paper can be challenging to trade in real life.

My analysis approach helps me manage my positions effectively. Even if you don’t own any tickers below, you can adapt parts of this framework to navigate the market more confidently.

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Watchlist

In this post, I will cover 16 ETFs, each tracking different segment of the market, including:

Equity Index:

• $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) – S&P500

• $QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) – Nasdaq

• $IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) – U.S. small-cap

• $EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) – Emerging markets

Fixed-Income:

• $BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) – U.S. investment-grade bonds

• $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) – Long-term U.S. Treasuries

• $UUP (U.S. Dollar Index) – U.S. dollar currency exposure

Crypto:

• BTCUSD (Bitcoin)

• ETHUSD (Ethereum)

• SOLUSD (Solana)

Commodities:

• $USO (United States Oil Fund) – Crude oil

• $UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) – Natural gas

• $URA (Uranium ETF) – Uranium

• $GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) – Gold

• $SLV (iShares Silver Trust) – Silver

• $DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture Fund) – Agriculture

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Momentum Analysis

Equity Index & Bonds

In all the charts below, the 9-week EMA is in BLUE, while the 30-week EMA is in YELLOW.

My Rating: “WATCH” means interesting set-up in formation but too early to invest

$SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF): ⭐️⭐️

The bounce from April's low is still in progress, but we are hitting an important confluence zone, notably the 30-week EMA. Only a sustained move above the trend line would make me more confident that this is more than a bear market rally.

$QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) ⭐️⭐️

Same setup.

$IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF)

Small caps suffered the most from economic uncertainties. And while we've seen a bounce since early April, there's still much ground to cover.

$EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) ⭐️⭐️⭐️

Emerging markets have held up relatively well this year. I started a position in my long-term account as we firmly recovered the 30-week EMA.

$BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) ⭐️⭐️

Flat consolidation for bonds, with uncertainty around the path of interest rates weighing.

$TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) ⭐️

It ended March with strong momentum, but rising yields in April sent it back into choppy action. Worth revisiting after we digest the FOMC meeting.

$UUP (U.S. Dollar Index)

It has been in a free fall for most of 2025 but has stabilized over the past two weeks. Still, momentum remains largely negative.

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Commodities & Crypto