Dear readers,
Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.
This mid-week update is all about my momentum review. Each week, I analyze a different curated list of ETFs or stock tickers covering either key market segments, sectors, or individual stocks. I focus on understanding where we are in the cycle with a mid-to-long-term perspective. My momentum model combines 3 elements: performance, trend, and key levels. This structured approach helps identify strengths, weaknesses, and emerging opportunities across various market segments.
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SUMMARY
Equities and crypto are consolidating at all-time highs after an extraordinary run since April, while metals have surged to fresh records and bonds are finally showing signs of life. It’s no exaggeration to call this the “everything rally.” But when traditionally conflicting assets move higher in unison, it raises questions about what the market is really pricing in.
The focus now shifts to the FOMC later this month. A rate cut looks almost inevitable given recent Fed commentary and softer data, but the real debate will be over the pace and scale of easing. Short-term, I still feel we are overdue for a pullback, and in fact, it might be the healthy reset needed to sustain the next leg higher. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, but how they digest and recover from corrections is the real test of strength.
My Analytical Approach
My momentum framework is divided into three parts: performance, trends, and key levels.
I like to see securities trading within 5% of their 1-year high, which indicates strong momentum and minimal overhead resistance. Additionally, I look for signs of accelerating gains in recent periods.
I assess the strength of a ETF’s weekly chart using a trend rating system on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above indicates a strong trend worth holding. A score of 2 or below signals weakening momentum and suggests preparing an exit plan.
My trend rating is based on five criteria centered around the 9- and 30-week exponential moving averages (EMAs):
The 9-week EMA is above the 30-week EMA (most important).
Price is trading above the 9-week EMA.
Price is trading above the 30-week EMA.
The 9-week EMA trend line is rising.
The 30-week EMA trend line is rising.
In the core of an uptrend, the 9-week EMA often acts as support, while a confirmed loss of the 30-week EMA with no reaction typically suggests a trend change on the horizon.
I complement my analysis by looking at key levels. Support and resistance levels are critical technical analysis components, serving as indicators for potential trend reversals or continuations. My preferred method is to look for previous highs and lows, any levels where the trend has historically changed, and price gaps.
Why This Framework?
I developed this framework to ride uptrends confidently and to filter out noise from the price action. Breakouts can be messy—ranging markets, failed breakouts, and sharp reversals are all challenges we face as swing traders. Even the best uptrend on paper can be challenging to trade in real life.
My analysis approach helps me manage my positions effectively. Even if you don’t own any tickers below, you can adapt parts of this framework to navigate the market more confidently.
Watchlist
In this post, I will cover 16 ETFs, each tracking different segment of the market, including:
Equity Index:
$SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) – S&P500
$QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) – Nasdaq
$IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) – U.S. small-cap
$EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) – Emerging markets
Fixed-Income:
$BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) – U.S. investment-grade bonds
$TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) – Long-term U.S. Treasuries
$UUP (U.S. Dollar Index) – U.S. dollar currency exposure
Crypto:
BTCUSD (Bitcoin)
ETHUSD (Ethereum)
SOLUSD (Solana)
Commodities:
$USO (United States Oil Fund) – Crude oil
$UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) – Natural gas
$URA (Uranium ETF) – Uranium
$GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) – Gold
$SLV (iShares Silver Trust) – Silver
$DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture Fund) – Agriculture
Momentum Analysis
Equity Index & Bonds
In all the charts below, the 9-week EMA is in BLUE, while the 30-week EMA is in YELLOW.
My Rating: “WATCH” means interesting set-up in formation but too early to invest.
$SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF): ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (stable vs last month)
We are still well anchored in the uptrend from April's low. The rally has, however, slowed down as we bumped into the 650-655 resistance area in the past few weeks. Typical base building suggests a large move is coming, and the market is likely waiting for the September FOMC to decide the direction. No reason to do anything other than hold here.
$QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (stable vs last month)
We're in a similar context as we hover around the 580-590 resistance area, with momentum slowing down in recent weeks but powering up for its next trend move.
$IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last month)
Momentum accelerated for small caps, playing catch-up after lagging most of the year. I like the long-term upside potential, but we'll first have to break through the all-time high clearly.
$EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (stable vs last month)
Leading ahead this year and still well anchored in its uptrend. We are still trading at a fair distance from previous highs, which again suggests more upside should the bulls follow through.
$BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last month)
Constructive action in recent weeks, but stepping back, we are still stuck in a 2+ year range. Only making a higher high above $76 and sustaining the move would make me confident we are truly breaking out.
$TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) ⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last month)
Treasuries are finally showing signs of strength as we reclaimed the 30-week EMA. We're still in the negative channel from 2022, and must hit higher highs at 94 and then 100 to confirm we are leaving the downtrend behind.
$UUP (U.S. Dollar Index) ⭐️ (stable vs last month)
Stabilizing but still stuck in negative downtrend. As usual a higher high and a reclaim of the 30-week EMA would be the confirmation to look.
Commodities & Crypto
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