Momentum Review: Macro Segments (Apr 2025 Edition)

Dear readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

This mid-week update is all about my momentum review. Each week, I analyze a different curated list of ETFs or stock tickers covering either key market segments, sectors, or individual stocks. I focus on understanding where we are in the cycle with a mid-to-long-term perspective. My momentum model combines 3 elements: performance, trend, and key levels. This structured approach helps identify strengths, weaknesses, and emerging opportunities across various market segments.

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SUMMARY

Equities are sitting at a crossroads, with their weekly charts flashing warning signals reminiscent of early 2022, March 2020, and October 2018. While each of those periods brought pain, the duration varied—from just weeks in 2020 to a few months in 2018 and almost a year in 2022. That history alone is enough reason to be cautious and watch how the coming weeks unfold.

If you’re seeking diversification beyond equities, many commodities show strong charts and fixed income has recently seen improved momentum. So, even if equities dip into a bear market, pockets of growth still exist.

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My Analytical Approach

My momentum framework is divided into three parts: performance, trends, and key levels.

I like to see securities trading within 5% of their 1-year high, which indicates strong momentum and minimal overhead resistance. Additionally, I look for signs of accelerating gains in recent periods.

I assess the strength of a ETF’s weekly chart using a trend rating system on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above indicates a strong trend worth holding. A score of 2 or below signals weakening momentum and suggests preparing an exit plan.

My trend rating is based on five criteria centered around the 9- and 30-week exponential moving averages (EMAs):

1. The 9-week EMA is above the 30-week EMA (most important).

2. Price is trading above the 9-week EMA.

3. Price is trading above the 30-week EMA.

4. The 9-week EMA trend line is rising.

5. The 30-week EMA trend line is rising.

In the core of an uptrend, the 9-week EMA often acts as support, while a confirmed loss of the 30-week EMA with no reaction typically suggests a trend change on the horizon.

I complement my analysis by looking at key levels. Support and resistance levels are critical technical analysis components, serving as indicators for potential trend reversals or continuations. My preferred method is to look for previous highs and lows, any levels where the trend has historically changed, and price gaps.

Why This Framework?

I developed this framework to ride uptrends confidently and to filter out noise from the price action. Breakouts can be messy—ranging markets, failed breakouts, and sharp reversals are all challenges we face as swing traders. Even the best uptrend on paper can be challenging to trade in real life.

My analysis approach helps me manage my positions effectively. Even if you don’t own any tickers below, you can adapt parts of this framework to navigate the market more confidently.

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Watchlist

In this post, I will cover 16 ETFs, each tracking different segment of the market, including:

Equity Index:

• $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) – S&P500

• $QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) – Nasdaq

• $IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) – U.S. small-cap

• $EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) – Emerging markets

Fixed-Income:

• $BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) – U.S. investment-grade bonds

• $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) – Long-term U.S. Treasuries

• $UUP (U.S. Dollar Index) – U.S. dollar currency exposure

Crypto:

• BTCUSD (Bitcoin)

• ETHUSD (Ethereum)

• SOLUSD (Solana)

Commodities:

• $USO (United States Oil Fund) – Crude oil

• $UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) – Natural gas

• $URA (Uranium ETF) – Uranium

• $GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) – Gold

• $SLV (iShares Silver Trust) – Silver

• $DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture Fund) – Agriculture

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Momentum Analysis

Equity Index & Bonds

In all the charts below, the 9-week EMA is in BLUE, while the 30-week EMA is in YELLOW.

$SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF): ⭐️

The 9-week EMA is about to cross below the 30-week EMA, which has typically warranted some caution. A fast reclaim of 575, a critical resistance where both trend lines currently sit, would signal that the worst is likely over.

$QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) ⭐️

Somewhat similar. Bulls will want to stay above the August low at 448 and reclaim the 500 level.

$IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF)

The negative breakdown happened even earlier for small caps, as we lost the 30-week EMA in mid-February and saw no reaction. If that’s a template for SPY and QQQ, that is definitively some concerning price action.

$EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) ⭐️⭐️⭐️

Emerging markets are more resilient this year as international markets catch up after lagging last year. However, this year, the $45 level has capped all bounce attempts.

$BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) ⭐️⭐️⭐️

Grinding higher in 2025, but I'd like to see a sustained break above the 74 resistance to feel more confident that we have more upside ahead.

$TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) ⭐️⭐️

Good bounce in progress as we reclaimed the 30-week EMA. I am considering adding exposure soon.

$UUP (U.S. Dollar Index)

Trying to find its footing around the 28 support level, but it is too early to tell if the worst is behind us.

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Commodities & Crypto