Momentum Review: Sectors & Industries (Apr 2025 Edition)

Apr 09, 2025

∙ Paid

Dear readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

This mid-week update is all about my momentum review. Each week, I analyze a different curated list of ETFs or stock tickers covering either key market segments, sectors, or individual stocks. I focus on understanding where we are in the cycle with a mid-to-long-term perspective. My momentum model combines 3 elements: performance, trend, and key levels. This structured approach helps identify strengths, weaknesses, and emerging opportunities across various market segments.

If you want the full experience, consider upgrading your subscription. Paid members get access to all my portfolios, real-time trade alerts, in-depth analysis, and a clear momentum-based framework you can follow and learn from.

Start today. Your first month is completely FREE—no commitment, no pressure. Just a chance to explore the full value of My Weekly Stock.

Let’s go!

SUMMARY

The recent turmoil has damaged the uptrend that’s carried equities since the end of the 2022 bear market. The recent selloff has left no place to hide—even typically defensive sectors like Consumer Staples, Healthcare, or Utilities, while somewhat more resilient, haven’t provided meaningful protection.

It’s too early to tell whether the worst is behind us or which sectors will lead once the dust settles. A sustained reclaim of the 30-week EMA would be an early signal, but the recent selloff has pushed that trend line out of reach for most sectors. That means that the best approach for now is patience.

My Analytical Approach

My momentum framework is divided into three parts: performance, trends, and key levels.

I like to see securities trading within 5% of their 1-year high, which indicates strong momentum and minimal overhead resistance. Additionally, I look for signs of accelerating gains in recent periods.

I assess the strength of a ETF’s weekly chart using a trend rating system on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above indicates a strong trend worth holding. A score of 2 or below signals weakening momentum and suggests preparing an exit plan.

My trend rating is based on five criteria centered around the 9- and 30-week exponential moving averages (EMAs):

The 9-week EMA is above the 30-week EMA (most important).
Price is trading above the 9-week EMA.
Price is trading above the 30-week EMA.
The 9-week EMA trend line is rising.
The 30-week EMA trend line is rising.

In the core of an uptrend, the 9-week EMA often acts as support, while a confirmed loss of the 30-week EMA with no reaction typically suggests a trend change on the horizon.

I complement my analysis by looking at key levels. Support and resistance levels are critical technical analysis components, serving as indicators for potential trend reversals or continuations. My preferred method is to look for previous highs and lows, any levels where the trend has historically changed, and price gaps.

Why This Framework?

I developed this framework to ride uptrends confidently and to filter out noise from the price action. Breakouts can be messy—ranging markets, failed breakouts, and sharp reversals are all challenges we face as investors. Even the best uptrend on paper can be challenging to trade in real life.

My analysis approach helps me manage my positions effectively. Even if you don’t own any tickers below, you can adapt parts of this framework to navigate the market more confidently.

Coverage

In this post, I will cover 16 ETFs, each tracking different sectors or industry, including:

(1) Growth:

$FDN (First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund) – Internet/digital economy
$IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) – Software
$SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) – Semiconductors
$HACK (Prime Cyber Security ETF) – Cybersecurity

(2) Defensive:

$VDC (Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF) – Consumer staples
$VHT (Vanguard Health Care ETF) – Healthcare
$VPU (Vanguard Utilities ETF) – Utilities

(3) Cyclical:

$XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) – Energy
$XME (SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF) – Metals & Mining
$PAVE (Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF) – Infrastructure
$XHB (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF) – Homebuilders
$VIS (Vanguard Industrials ETF) - Industrials
$IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation ETF) - Transportation
$KBE (SPDR S&P Bank ETF) - Banks
$XRT (SPDR Retail ETF) - Retail
$VNQ (Vanguard Real Estate ETF) – Real estate

Momentum Analysis

Growth & Defensive

In all the charts below, the 9-week EMA is in BLUE, while the 30-week EMA is in YELLOW.

$FDN – Internet/digital economy ⭐️

Down in 7 of the past 8 weeks in a move in which it lost the 30-week EMA. It's too early to tell if the worst is over.

$IGV - Software

Got close to the August low on Monday before attempting a (short-lived) bounce. A lot of ground to recover to erase the damage from last week.

$SMH - Semiconductors

One of the first sectors to show a topping structure, ranging since last summer before breaking down. I'm watching for early signs of a broader market reversal.

$HACK – Cybersecurity⭐️

Lost key averages in sync with the rest of the market, although showing more resilience this week and still well above the August low.

$VDC – Consumer staples

More resilient than the broader market, as one would expect—but economic recession worries and stubbornly high yields are weighing on the performance.

$VHT – Healthcare

Failed so far to provide proper protection for investors looking for a more defensive play. However, we did see a bounce attempt this week.

$VPU - Utilities ⭐️

Down only 3% in 2025, but still under pressure last week. The 9-week EMA is about to cross below the 30-week, which is usually a bearish signal.

Want to see my momentum analysis in action?

I apply these insights directly to my long-term portfolios. To access the portfolios and all my momentum analysis, subscribe now. Your first month is free so that you can explore the full value of My Weekly Stock with no commitment.

Cyclicals

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to My Weekly Stock to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.