My Weekly Stock Debrief (Nov. 28-Dec. 2)
Dear subscribers,
Welcome to My Weekly Stock’s debrief for week #48 of 2022 (Nov. 28-Dec. 2), our weekly recap of the stock market performance.
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1. Market Performance
The equity markets were up for the week, with the SP500 gaining 1.1%, the Dow Jones 0.2%, and the NASDAQ 2.0%.
The major stock indices rose as Fed Chairman Jerome Powel indicated that the Federal Reserve might slow down the pace of its rate hikes, beginning with the December Fed meeting.
The index finally reclaimed its 200-day moving average this week, a significant improvement over the last attempt in August when the index failed to climb any further. Maintaining above the 200-day SMA, now at 4’046, is critical and would be a bullish development for the markets.
2. SP500 Sector Performance
9 of the 11 S&P500 sectors closed the week higher. Communication Services led and closed up 3.5%, while Energy lagged and finished down 1.7%.
Year-to-date, only 1 sector is positive. Despite the volatility, Energy remains the indisputable winner of 2022 with a 63% gain. Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical are the worst performers in 2022.
3. SP500 Heatmap
68% of the SP500 stocks were up in the last 5 trading days.
Best performers:
Catalent, Inc. (CTLT, 26%)
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY, 17%)
PVH Corp. (PVH, 15%)
Worst performers:
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO, -8%)
Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. (CRL, -8%)
NetApp, Inc. (NTAP, -11%)
4. SP500 Breadth
Almost two-thirds of the S&P500 components are trading above their 200-day moving averages.
This week also saw more new 52-week highs (40) than new lows (3).
Read more about moving averages
5. SP500 Daily Chart
The technical indicators for the S&P500 remain on the bullish side. The index finally reclaimed its 200-day moving average this week, a significant improvement over the last attempt in August when the index failed to climb any further.
Maintaining above the 200-day SMA, now at 4’046, is critical and would be a good indicator for the market in the immediate term.
6. Market Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index
CNN's Fear & Greed Index tracks seven sentiment indicators and is published daily.
On Friday, the indicator closed at the "Greed" level (63), in line with the previous week. The VIX was down 7% to close below 20, indicating a moderate level of market uncertainty.
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
The American Association of Individual Investors surveys its members each week on the direction of the stock market for the next six months. The results are published weekly on Wednesdays.
The last AAII survey reported that 40% of the respondents had a bearish market outlook, unchanged from the previous week. The market sentiment is normalizing back to historical averages but remains primarily bearish.
7. Our Earnings Chart of the Week
Broadcom (AVGO) is reporting its quarterly results next week. The stock performance after releasing earnings was positive in 9 of the past 12 quarters. The average 1-day return was +2.0%, for an average move of +/- 3.2% on earnings day.
8. Best Tweets of the Week
9. The Week Ahead
So far, 494 stocks of the S&P500 have reported Q3 2022 earnings. 71% have exceeded analysts' projections on EPS, which is 7 points lower than the previous four-quarter average.
Next week, Oracle (ORCL), Costco (COST), and Broadcom (AVGO) are set to release quarterly results as the corporate earnings season winds down.
There will be a few economic updates in the next week. One of the reports will be the November Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide a snapshot of the inflation rate from the perspective of businesses and wholesalers.
10. Trading Update
This week, our stock pick, Merck (MRK), was up 2.7% (Monday open to Friday close). In 2022, My Weekly Stock’s picks are up 12% cumulatively (no leverage, buy and hold for five days), and our options trading is up 135%.
Access our performance tracking here.
We will trade a stock in the Healthcare sector for the week ahead. Our stock pick will be released on Monday before the markets open. In the meantime, you can learn more about our trading approach in the article below:
Read more about our trading approach here.
That’s all for My Weekly Stock’s debrief for week #48 of 2022 (Nov. 28-Dec. 2).
I hope you enjoyed reading our weekly market recap! If you have any feedback or suggestion, please use the survey below:
Have a great week,
My Weekly Stock
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