Weekly Market Recap (Apr 28-May 2): Short-Term Momentum Builds – Now Comes the Fed
Everything you need to know about last week's markets performance and what to expect next.
Dear readers,
Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.
Friday means it's time to review the week in the markets. Each week, I dedicate hours to curating this market recap, preparing insightful analysis with clear visuals and a structured layout—making it easy for you to find exactly what you need, week after week. And because it's easy to get swayed by personal bias, I like to let the data do most of the talking.
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SUMMARY
Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:
1. The markets were positive this week, with the S&P 500 up 2.9%, the Nasdaq 3.4%, and the Dow Jones 3%. Industrials (+4.3%) and Technology (+3.9%) were the best-performing sectors.
2. The S&P 500's long-term trend is mixed, but the short-term momentum is mostly positive. 5,700 is the next resistance, while 5,450 is support.
3. The Q1 earnings season is under way and 357 companies from the S&P 500 index have released their quarterly results, with 74% beating estimates. Earnings are expected to be up 14% in Q1 and 9% in 2025.
4. Market sentiment is at the "Fear" level (43/100) as measured by CNN’s Fear & Greed indicator, while VIX is at a very high value of 23.
5. Earnings reports from Palantir and Disney, and the Fed meeting are scheduled for next week.
My take:
Another winning week with a broad-based rally as the bounce from April lows continues. What stood out more than the gains themselves was that the early week softness due to weak economic data was short-lived and quickly bought, followed by further strength. That’s a clear sign of underlying short-term momentum.
We’re back at the “zone of the crime” from early April, where the sell-off began. But after 9 straight positive days, I will watch how the next pullback unfolds. Notably, if bearish pressure is contained and dips continue to get bought, that might confirm that this bounce is more than just a bear market rally. And with the Fed meeting next week, the market may get the catalyst it needs to decide.
PERFORMANCE RECAP
1. S&P 500 Sector Performance
This week, 10 out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains. Industrials led the market with a 4.3% increase, while Energy was the laggard, dropping 0.5%.
Year-to-date, 8 sectors have achieved positive performance. Utilities is the top-performing sector with a 5.3 % gain, while Consumer Cyclical lags behind, with a 10.2 % loss.
2. S&P 500 Top & Worst Performers
Over the last five trading days, 82% of the stocks in the S&P 500 index rose in value.
Top Performers:
$CARR (Carrier Global Corp): 19.1%
$ANET (Arista Networks Inc): 16.8%
$TT (Trane Technologies plc): 14.8%
$DXCM (Dexcom Inc): 13.9%
$HWM (Howmet Aerospace Inc): 13.5%
Worst Performers:
$HOLX (Hologic, Inc): -6.7%
$LLY (Lilly(Eli) & Co): -6.9%
$SMCI (Super Micro Computer Inc): -7.6%
$FSLR (First Solar Inc): -8%
$TRGP (Targa Resources Corp): -8.9%
In addition, 14 stocks within the S&P 500 reached a new 52-week high, while 10 stocks set new lows. The majority of this week’s highs came from the Health Care sector.
Notable Highs:
$NFLX (Netflix Inc)
$PM (Philip Morris International Inc)
$CME (CME Group Inc)
$CVS (CVS Health Corp)
$RSG (Republic Services, Inc)
Notable Lows:
$UNH (Unitedhealth Group Inc)
$PEP (PepsiCo Inc)
$BDX (Becton Dickinson & Co)
$PCAR (Paccar Inc)
$GIS (General Mills, Inc)
MARKET MOMENTUM
1. Momentum Review
To evaluate the market's current health, I examine 4 key elements: performance, breadth, trends, and key levels. Healthy bull markets typically feature indices setting new highs, broad market participation, and ascending trend lines.
Performance (WEAK 🔴): evaluating recent market performance to gauge the momentum’s strength. Ideally i want to see returns accelerating short-term and index trading less than 5% from its 1-year high
1-month performance: +0.4% 🟡
3-month performance: -5.8% 🔴
vs. 1-year high: -7.6%🟡
Breadth (MIXED 🟡): assessing market participation to understand the health of the trend. Extreme levels (above 80% or below 20%) may indicate overextended trends.
% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 41% (up from 33% last week) 🔴
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 88% (up from 68% last week) 🟢
Trends: analyzing trend strength across multiple timeframes using exponential moving averages, scored on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above suggests solid trends and supports holding a position.
Weekly chart: MIXED ⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last week)
Daily chart: POSITIVE ⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last week)
4-hour chart: STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last week)
Key levels: identifying critical price zones to confirm the current trend or signal a potential reversal.
Support:
$5,100 (-10.3%)
$5,220 (-8.2%)
$5,450 (-4.2%)
Resistance:
$5,700 (+0.2%)
$5,775 (+1.6%)
$6,000 (+5.5%)
2. Post of the Week
This week's momentum analysis is about seasonality, as we just started the month of May. Since 1964, the S&P500 has been up 59% of the time in May, averaging a 0.2% return.
EARNINGS & ECONOMIC REPORTS RECAP
1. Earnings Outlook
Q1 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 14%, rising to 16% when excluding the energy sector.
2025 Full-Year Outlook: Earnings are expected to increase by 9%, in line with the 10-year average growth of 9%.
Analyst Revisions: Over the past month, 38% of all earnings revisions by analysts have been upward adjustments to their outlook.
Valuation: The forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 20.6, above the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.
2. Earnings Season Recap
Out of 357 S&P 500 companies that have reported first-quarter earnings, 74% exceeded EPS expectations. It is below with the four-quarter average of 77% but above the historical average of 67%.
Below are some notable companies that reported earnings last week. I’ve highlighted their EPS and revenue performance vs estimate, as well as their stock return this week.
One highlight of the week was Microsoft, the clear winner among the mega-cap tech this week. The stock gained 11% for the week.
3. Economic Reports
It was a big week for U.S. macro data, with a disappointing GDP report but strong job data. Here are the key takeaways:
GDP (Q1, QoQ): -0.3% vs. +0.2% expected, a significant downside surprise, showing economic contraction.
Core PCE (YoY): Held steady at 2.6%, showing sticky inflation.
Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr): Stronger-than-expected at 177K (vs. 138K forecast).
Unemployment Rate: Unchanged at 4.2%, as expected.
MARKET SENTIMENT
Measures of investor sentiment can be helpful as they provide insight into the views and opinions of professional or individual investors. While not definitive predictors of market direction, these measures can serve as a valuable complement to other indicators and analysis tools, helping to paint a more comprehensive picture of the market's current state.
1. AAII Sentiment Survey (Individual Investors)
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) conducts a weekly survey to gauge members' expectations for the stock market over the next six months. Results are published every Wednesday.
In the latest survey, 21% of respondents had a bullish outlook, down from 22% the previous week.
2. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (Institutional Investors)
The Bank of America Bull-Bear Indicator measures investor sentiment based on fund managers' and institutional investors' views. Scores range from 0 (extremely bearish) to 10 (extremely bullish).
The most recent reading was 3.9, a slightly bearish sentiment.
3. CNN Fear & Greed Index (Technical)
This daily measure analyzes seven indicators to assess how emotions drive market decisions. Scores range from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed.
The index closed at 43 (Fear), up from 36 last Friday.
THE WEEK AHEAD
1. Economic Calendar
All eyes next week will be on the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday, as markets brace for the latest interest rate decision. With the Fed expected to hold rates steady at 4.50%, traders will closely scrutinize the FOMC statement and Chair Powell's press conference for any clues on future policy moves amid lingering inflation concerns and mixed economic data.
Other notable data points:
S&P Global Services PMI (Apr): Forecast 51.4 (vs. 54.4 prior)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Forecast 50.6 (vs. 50.8 prior)
2. Earnings Calendar
The earnings season continues next week, and 94 companies from the S&P 500, including Palantir and Disney, are expected to release their quarterly results.
Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with several key indicators I like to monitor:
Stock Indicators:
3-Month Performance: Assessing recent stock trends.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A reading above 70 suggests overbought conditions, while below 30 indicates oversold.
P/E Ratio: A value below 25 often points to a "cheap" valuation or low growth expectations.
Stock Price Reactions to Earnings:
1-Day Stock Return on Earnings: How the stock performs on its earnings release day.
Implied Volatility: The options market's forecast for the expected 1-day stock move after earnings.
3. Stock Analysis of the Week
Every week, I share my analysis of 1 stock that has reported earnings in recent weeks, focusing on implications for long-term investors. This week, I prepared an analysis of Tesla ($TSLA).
👨💻 My View: PASS
Tesla has been a wild ride. After spending most of 2024 in a tight range, the stock exploded higher following the November U.S. election—only to give back all those gains in early 2025.
In April, $TSLA found solid support around the $215 level, and we’ve since seen a strong bounce off those lows. But now comes the real test: the stock is knocking on the door of its 30-week EMA, a key long-term trend line.
Can this relief rally turn into something more? I’m watching closely from the sidelines for now—volatility is still the name of the game here.
Check out the post for more details about $TSLA performance, trend and key levels.
CONCLUSION
Thank you for reading my Weekly Market Recap, which, I hope, got you ready for the week ahead.
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Thanks again, and I look forward to sharing my market recap with you next week.
Happy investing!
My Weekly Stock
DISCLAIMER
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Any investments or decisions made based on the information provided in this newsletter are the reader's sole responsibility. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. The author does not assume any responsibility for any losses or damages arising from using the information provided in this newsletter.