Weekly Market Recap (Jan 26-30): S&P 500 Rejected at 7,000, but Holds Important Trend Line. What Comes Next?
A complete recap of last week’s market action, and what it means for the week ahead.
Readers,
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SUMMARY
Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:
1. Performance Recap: a mixed week across the equity markets: S&P 500 (0.3%), Nasdaq (-0.2%), Dow Jones (-0.4%). Sector leaders: Energy (+3.8%) and Communication Serv. (+2.7%).
2. Momentum Pulse Check: S&P 500’s long-term trend remains positive; short-term momentum is mixed. Next resistance: 7,000; support: 6,870.
3. Earnings Update: 166 S&P 500 companies reported, with 76% topping estimates. Q4 earnings growth: +11%, full-year 2026 outlook: +15%.
4. Sentiment Check: CNN Fear & Greed at 57/100 (Greed); VIX was up to 17.4, a low reading.
5. Next week’s agenda: Earnings from Alphabet ($GOOG), and Amazon ($AMZN). Job report.
📌 My Take:
The week started strong, with the S&P 500 even touching 7,000, before a pullback and a volatile finish as tech earnings rolled out. The fact that the index tagged an important level but couldn’t hold it is not ideal, but not uncommon at a strong resistance level. We’re still sitting above the 21-day EMA, my favorite short-term trend line, and my line in the sand for short-term bias.
Monday’s action around this zone will be telling. Still, I’m staying cautious ahead of more mega-cap tech earnings and jobs data on Friday, plus watching for any fallout from Silver’s 30% one-day crash.
PERFORMANCE RECAP
1. S&P 500 Sector Breakdown
This week: 7 of the 11 sectors advanced. Energy (3.8%) was the best performer, while Health Care (-1.7%) was the weakest.
Year-to-date: 8 sectors are positive. Energy (14.2 %) is the leader, while Financials (-2.4%) is the laggard.
2. S&P 500 Movers: Top & Worst Performers
Over the last five trading days, 50% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher.
Top Performers:
$SNDK (Sandisk Corp): 21.6%
$DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corp): 19.4%
$STX (Seagate Technology Holdings Plc): 17.8%
$RCL (Royal Caribbean Group): 13.5%
$LUV (Southwest Airlines Co): 13.3%
Worst Performers:
$CVNA (Carvana Co): -15.3%
$TTD (Trade Desk Inc): -17%
$UNH (Unitedhealth Group Inc): -19.5%
$AXON (Axon Enterprise Inc): -21.1%
$HUM (Humana Inc): -26.8%
3. S&P 500 Movers: New 1-Year Highs & Lows
This week, 74 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 27 stocks fell to new lows. Industrials stood out, contributing 21 of this week’s new highs.
Notable new 52-week highs:
$GOOGL (Alphabet Inc)
$XOM (Exxon Mobil Corp)
$JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)
$MU (Micron Technology Inc)
$CVX (Chevron Corp)
Notable new 52-week lows:
$CRM (Salesforce Inc)
$ABT (Abbott Laboratories)
$T (AT&T, Inc)
$INTU (Intuit Inc)
$NOW (ServiceNow Inc)
📌 My take:
Cyclicals, and Energy in particular, continue to lead with clear relative strength, and more names pushing to new year highs.MOMENTUM PULSE CHECK
1. S&P 500 Pulse Check
(1) Performance: positive returns and trading within a short distance of its 1-year high.
1-month performance: +0.7%
3-month performance: +0.7%
Distance from 52-week high: -0.8%
(2) Breadth: Short-term breadth is mixed and declining.
Breadth measures how many stocks are joining the move. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) often signal overbought/oversold conditions and serve as early warning signs of a trend reversal.
% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 64% (down from 66% last week)
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 53% (down from 57% last week)
(3) Trends: strong on the weekly chart, but mixed on the daily.
I analyze trend strength using exponential moving averages (EMAs) and score them on a 1-5 scale. A score of 3+ indicates a healthy trend worth riding.
Weekly chart (long-term/position):
Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Outlook: Stable 
Daily chart (mid-term/swing trade):
Sideways ⭐⭐☆☆☆, Outlook: Stable
4) Key levels:
Critical price zones that either confirm the current trend or warn of a potential reversal.
Support (downside zones to watch)
6,630 (–4.5%)
6,790 (-2.1%)
6,870 (-1.0%)
Resistance (upside hurdles)
7,000 (+0.9%)
7,400 (+6.6%)
📌 My take:
Another volatile week with sizable intraday moves, but little change to the broader momentum picture. The higher-timeframe uptrend remains intact while the short-term trend stays indecisive, a setup likely to persist until we break decisively above 7,000 or see sustained selling pressure.2. Momentum Deep Dive of the Week
Each week, I select a specific theme and run the entire framework to pinpoint where the momentum lies.
This week, the theme is the Consumer Defensive sector. The results: AB Inbev and Monster Beverage emerged as the consumer defensive stocks with the strongest relative momentum, according to weekly charts.
3. Stock Analysis of the Week
I selected a name with recently reported earnings and ran it through the full Momentum Pulse Check to assess the implications for long-term positions. This week: Tesla ($TSLA).
My View → HOLD
The uptrend remains mostly positive, but momentum has slowed down recently. Price has slipped below the 9-week EMA and needs to reclaim it to avoid deeper consolidation. Failure to do so would likely trigger a test of the 30-week EMA, a key trend line for bulls to defend.
The full breakdown (trend score, key levels, and implications) is available in this Substack Note.
This analysis is built using my Momentum Pulse Check, a tool I use to assess trend and momentum across markets.
Paid subscribers can access the tool to explore the same signals and context in real time.
ECONOMIC & EARNINGS REPORTS
1. Economic Reports
Last week’s main event was the Fed meeting, where the central bank left rates unchanged at 3.75%, as widely expected. At the following press conference, the Fed Chair said the Committee felt the current rate level was appropriate and attributed the elevated inflation to the one-off effects of tariffs.
Key data highlights:
Fed Interest Rate Decision: Actual 3.75% vs Forecast 3.75% vs Previous 3.75%
PPI (MoM, Dec): Actual +0.5% vs Forecast +0.2% vs Previous +0.2%
2. Earnings Outlook
Q4 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings expected to grow +11% year-over-year (+11% when excluding Energy).
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Consensus forecasts +15% growth, largely above the 10-year average of +9 %.
Analyst Revisions: 52% of all revisions in the past month have been upward.
Valuation: Forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 22.3, above both the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.
3. Earnings Season Recap
Out of the 166 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q4 earnings, 76% exceeded EPS expectations, below the four-quarter average of 78% and above the historical average of 67%.
Below are some notable companies that reported last week, along with their EPS/revenue performance vs. estimates and weekly stock returns.
One highlight: Microsoft ($MSFT). The company beat earnings estimates, but the stock lost 10% for the week over concerns about AI Capex and Azure slowing growth.
📌 My take:
Mixed tech earnings and a cautious tone from the Fed weighed on sentiment in the second half of the week.MARKET SENTIMENT
Sentiment indicators offer a window into the views of professional and retail traders. While not predictive on their own, they complement technical and fundamental analysis, helping to assess the market’s predominant sentiment.
1. VIX (Volatility Index)
The VIX, or volatility index, measures expected volatility over the next 30 days using option prices. It is often called the “fear gauge” because it rises during uncertain times, when investors anticipate larger swings.
Current reading: 17, a medium value, and up from 16 last Friday.
2. CNN Fear & Greed Index
This index combines seven market indicators to score investor sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).
Current reading is 57 (Greed), up from 53 a week ago.
3. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator
The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator is a contrarian tool that tracks global investor sentiment and market positioning. The indicator combines six factors, including positioning, fund flows, and various liquidity and risk metrics.
The scoring system was updated in December 2025 and ranges from 0 (extreme fear, buy signal) to 10 (extreme greed, sell signal), with >8.0 as “sell” territory and <2.0 as “buy.”
Current reading: 9.2, an extremely bullish sentiment, and usually a contrarian “sell” signal according to BofA.
📌 My take:
Volatility has picked up but remains at reasonable levels, and short-term sentiment is elevated yet not extreme, with no storng warning signs at this stage.THE WEEK AHEAD
1. Economic Calendar
It will be a busy week, building toward Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which is likely to be the main market mover. Along the way, markets will also digest key PMI readings, which will provide an update on activity and price pressures across manufacturing and services before attention fully shifts to the labor market.
Key events to watch:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan): Previous 47.9
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan): Previous 53.8
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan): Previous 50K
Unemployment Rate (Jan): Previous 4.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM, Jan): Previous 0.3%
2. Earnings Calendar
The new earnings season continues next week, with 128 S&P 500 companies, including Alphabet ($GOOG) and Amazon ($AMZN), set to report their quarterly results.
3. Earnings Watchlist
Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with my Momentum Pulse Check snapshot and implied volatility for the upcoming week.
In particular, I’ll keep a close eye on Palantir, which is entering earnings on a strong and extended downtrend on the daily chart. Options markets are pricing a 10% move for next week.
📌 My take:
Another catalyst-heavy week lies ahead, with more Tech earnings on deck and the week culminating in a full labor market snapshot on Friday.COMMUNITY SPOTLIGHT
Each week, I highlight another Substack publication that offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature Panic Drop - Timothy Assi.
Panic Drop is a newsletter for traders seeking actionable insights across crypto, precious metals, and equity markets. Get clear cycle-based analysis, key price levels, and tactical strategies that help you position smarter and protect your capital in volatile markets. Founded by Timothy Assi, an Elite Pro Investor on eToro.
Here is one of his latest posts, which covers the key levels to watch for Bitcoin.
CONCLUSION
That’s a wrap for this recap! I spend hours every week structuring this recap so you can quickly find the insights you need, week after week.
You enjoyed this recap and want the actionable side? Paid subscribers get access to my weekly Momentum Picks, with a documented +800% return since 2019.
Happy investing,
My Weekly Stock,
DISCLAIMER
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Any investments or decisions made based on the information provided in this newsletter are the reader's sole responsibility. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. The author does not assume any responsibility for any losses or damages arising from using the information provided in this newsletter.