Weekly Market Recap (Jul 14-18): Markets Drift Higher Despite Tariff Noise, But Resistance Still Holds
Everything you need to know about last week's markets performance and what to expect next.
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Friday means it's time to review the week in the markets. Each week, I dedicate hours to curating this market recap, preparing insightful analysis with clear visuals and a structured layout—making it easy for you to find exactly what you need, week after week. And because it's easy to get swayed by personal bias, I like to let the data do most of the talking.
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Let's dive in!
SUMMARY
Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:
1. The markets were mostly positive this week, with the S&P 500 up 0.6%, the Nasdaq 1.5%, and the Dow Jones -0.1%. Technology (+2%) and Utilities (+1.6%) were the best-performing sectors.
2. The S&P 500's long-term trend is positive, and the short-term momentum is also positive. 6,300 is the next resistance, while 6,175 is support.
3. The Q2 earnings season has started and 59 companies from the S&P 500 index have released their quarterly results, with 81% beating estimates. Earnings are expected to be up 7% in Q2 and 9% in 2025.
4. Market sentiment is at the "Extreme Greed" level (75/100) as measured by CNN’s Fear & Greed indicator, while VIX is at a medium value of 16.
5. Earnings report from Alphabet and Tesla, and the latest PMI readings are scheduled for next week.
My take:
Another similar action we have seen many times in recent weeks: with some negative headlines over the weekend, again regarding tariffs. While we opened the week in the red, the pullback was quickly bought. The S&P 500 spent the rest of the week grinding below the 6,300 resistance level. The index hit another record-high but failed to sustain a move above the resistance level.
Despite the market shrugging off tariff concerns and most negative headlines in recent weeks, the late summer could present a bumpier road ahead. No uptrend can continue indefinitely without some form of reset. After four months of rally, we're certainly due for a meaningful pullback. But until then, let's enjoy the nice momentum and gains.
PERFORMANCE RECAP
1. S&P 500 Sector Performance
This week, 8 out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains. Technology led the market with a 2% increase, while Energy was the laggard, dropping 3.6%.
Year-to-date, 9 sectors have achieved positive performance. Industrials is the top-performing sector with a 15 % gain, while Health Care lags behind, with a 4.2 % loss.
2. S&P 500 Top & Worst Performers
Over the last five trading days, 50% of the stocks in the S&P 500 index rose in value.
Top Performers:
$IVZ (Invesco Ltd): 14.3%
$WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery Inc): 8.7%
$ALB (Albemarle Corp): 8.6%
$COIN (Coinbase Global Inc): 8.5%
$FSLR (First Solar Inc): 8.3%
Worst Performers:
$SLB (Schlumberger Ltd): -10.7%
$CNC (Centene Corp): -11.1%
$MOH (Molina Healthcare Inc): -17.4%
$WAT (Waters Corp): -18.5%
$ELV (Elevance Health Inc): -18.7%
In addition, 43 stocks within the S&P 500 reached a new 52-week high, while 12 stocks set new lows. The majority of this week’s highs came from the Industrials sector.
Notable Highs:
$NVDA (NVIDIA)
$MSFT (Microsoft)
$AVGO (Broadcom)
$ORCL (Oracle)
$PLTR (Palantir Technologies)
Notable Lows:
$PG (Procter & Gamble)
$ELV (Elevance Health)
$CPRT (Copart)
$FICO (Fair Isaac)
$PCG (PG&E)
MARKET MOMENTUM
1. Momentum Review
To evaluate the market's current health, I examine 4 key elements: performance, breadth, trends, and key levels. Healthy bull markets typically feature indices setting new highs, broad market participation, and ascending trend lines.
Performance (POSITIVE 🟢): evaluating recent market performance to gauge the momentum’s strength. Ideally i want to see returns accelerating short-term and index trading less than 5% from its 1-year high
1-month performance: +5.0% 🟢
3-month performance: +19.4% 🟢
vs. 1-year high: -0.1%🟢
Breadth (POSITIVE 🟢): assessing market participation to understand the health of the trend. Extreme levels (above 80% or below 20%) may indicate overextended trends.
% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 58% (down from 60% last week) 🟢
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 58% (down from 68% last week) 🟢
Trends: analyzing trend strength across multiple timeframes using exponential moving averages, scored on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above suggests solid trends and supports holding a position.
Weekly chart: VERY STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (stable vs last week)
Daily chart: VERY STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (stable vs last week)
4-hour chart: STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (stable vs last week)
Key levels: identifying critical price zones to confirm the current trend or signal a potential reversal.
Support:
5,920 (-6.0%)
6,050 (-3.9%)
6,175 (-1.9%)
Resistance:
6,300 (+0.1%)
6,490 (+3.1%)
6,700 (+6.4%)
2. Post of the Week
This week's momentum analysis is about the Commodities. Using a combination of performance metrics and technical indicators, I've developed a proprietary algorithm to rank 9 commodities. Based on this approach, I've identified Uranium and Silver as having the best relative momentum currently
EARNINGS & ECONOMIC REPORTS RECAP
1. Economic Reports
It was a packed week of economic data, with key inflation and consumer activity reports drawing market attention. The data painted a mixed picture, showing firming price pressures (although in line or below expectations) and a solid rebound in retail spending.
Key reports included:
CPI (Tue): Headline inflation rose 0.3% MoM, matching forecasts and accelerating from 0.1% in May. Core CPI rose 0.2%, slightly below expectations (0.3%) but still up from last month’s 0.1%. The YoY CPI came in at 2.7%, notably above the prior 2.4%.
PPI (Wed): Producer prices were flat (0.0% MoM), undershooting the 0.2% forecast and slowing from the prior 0.3%.
Retail Sales (Thu): Consumers showed strength in June. Headline sales rose 0.6% MoM, beating expectations (0.1%) and reversing May’s -0.9% drop. Core Retail Sales jumped 0.5%, well above forecast (0.3%) and last month’s -0.2% reading.
2. Earnings Outlook
Q2 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 7%, rising to 9% when excluding the energy sector.
2025 Full-Year Outlook: Earnings are expected to increase by 9%, in line with the 10-year average growth of 9%.
Analyst Revisions: Over the past month, 55% of all earnings revisions by analysts have been upward adjustments to their outlook.
Valuation: The forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 22.4, above the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.
3. Earnings Season Recap
Out of the 59 S&P 500 companies that have reported second-quarter earnings, 81% exceeded EPS expectations. It is above with the four-quarter average of 77% and above the historical average of 67%.
Below are some notable companies that reported earnings last week. I’ve highlighted their EPS and revenue performance vs estimate, as well as their stock return this week.
One highlight of the week was Netflix ($NFLX), which posted a mixed report. The stock lost 5% on Friday and 3% for the week.
MARKET SENTIMENT
Measures of investor sentiment can be helpful as they provide insight into the views and opinions of professional or individual investors. While not definitive predictors of market direction, these measures can serve as a valuable complement to other indicators and analysis tools, helping to paint a more comprehensive picture of the market's current state.
1. AAII Sentiment Survey (Individual Investors)
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) conducts a weekly survey to gauge members' expectations for the stock market over the next six months. Results are published every Wednesday.
In the latest survey, 39% of respondents had a bullish outlook, down from 41% the previous week.
2. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (Institutional Investors)
The Bank of America Bull-Bear Indicator measures investor sentiment based on fund managers' and institutional investors' views. Scores range from 0 (extremely bearish) to 10 (extremely bullish).
The most recent reading was 6.1, a slightly bullish sentiment reading.
3. CNN Fear & Greed Index (Technical)
This daily measure analyzes seven indicators to assess how emotions drive market decisions. Scores range from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed.
The index closed at 75 (Extreme Greed), stable from last Friday.
THE WEEK AHEAD
1. Economic Calendar
It’s a relatively quiet week in terms of economic data, with few major releases on deck. The primary focus will be on Fed Chair Powell, who is scheduled to speak on Tuesday. With the next FOMC meeting approaching at the end of the month, markets will be listening carefully for any policy hints or shifts in tone.
Key reports to watch will be the S&P Global PMIs (Thu). Both manufacturing and services PMIs came in at 52.9 last month, just above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
2. Earnings Calendar
The earnings season is picking up steam and 110 company from the S&P 500, including Alphabet and Tesla, are expected to release their quarterly results.
Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with several key indicators I like to monitor:
3-Month Performance: Assessing recent stock trends.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A reading above 70 suggests overbought conditions, while below 30 indicates oversold.
P/E Ratio: A value below 25 often points to a "cheap" valuation or low growth expectations.
Implied Volatility: The options market's forecast for the expected 1-day stock move after earnings.
3. Stock Analysis of the Week
Every week, I share my analysis of 1 stock that has reported earnings in recent weeks, focusing on implications for long-term investors. This week, I prepared an analysis of JPMorgan ($JPM).
👨💻 My View:
JPMorgan resumed its uptrend after the Q1 tariff scare, though it was a close call. The recovery since then has been strong, pushing the stock to new record highs.
Last week, the rally finally paused as the stock struggled to clear the key $300 resistance area.
No cause for concern yet. After such a sharp move, a breather is to be expected. But it remains to be seen whether the Bulls can build enough momentum to break through that psychological level.
Check out the post for more details about $JPM performance, trend and key levels.
Community Spotlight
This week, I'm glad to feature
, a quant researcher and data scientist, exploring the intersection of markets, data, and behavior. On her Substack newsletter, she dives into how quant methods and market intuition work together to help investors navigate everything from AI-driven momentum to macro shocks and volatility regimes. She writes about price action strategies, round number psychology, economic indicators, and machine learning applications in finance
CONCLUSION
Thank you for reading my Weekly Market Recap, which, I hope, got you ready for the week ahead.
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Happy investing!
My Weekly Stock
DISCLAIMER
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Any investments or decisions made based on the information provided in this newsletter are the reader's sole responsibility. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. The author does not assume any responsibility for any losses or damages arising from using the information provided in this newsletter.
Thanks for the feature—honored to be included in this week’s spotlight! ✨
I really appreciate the depth and structure you bring to these recaps. It’s rare to see momentum analysis that’s both rigorous and actionable. Loved the commodity breakdown this week too—Uranium and Silver standing out makes sense given the recent flows. 👍
Always a must-read heading into the weekend. 👏