Weekly Market Recap (Jun 30-Jul 4): Markets Grind Higher to Fresh Record Highs – Will Momentum Hold After the Holiday Weekend?
Everything you need to know about last week's markets performance and what to expect next.
Dear readers,
Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.
Friday means it's time to review the week in the markets. Each week, I dedicate hours to curating this market recap, preparing insightful analysis with clear visuals and a structured layout—making it easy for you to find exactly what you need, week after week. And because it's easy to get swayed by personal bias, I like to let the data do most of the talking.
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Let's dive in!
SUMMARY
Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:
1. The markets were positive this week, with the S&P 500 up 1.7%, the Nasdaq 1.6%, and the Dow Jones 2.3%. Materials (+4%) and Technology (+2.5%) were the best-performing sectors.
2. The S&P 500's long-term trend is positive, and the short-term momentum is also positive. 6,300 is the next resistance, while 6,175 is support.
3. The Q1 earnings season is over and 500 companies from the S&P 500 index have released their quarterly results, with 76% beating estimates. Earnings are expected to be up 14% in Q1 and 9% in 2025.
4. Market sentiment is at the "Extreme Greed" level (78/100) as measured by CNN’s Fear & Greed indicator, while VIX is at a medium value of 16.
5. Earnings report from Delta Airlines and the FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled for next week.
My take:
This week was marked by a slow grind higher, with the S&P 500 consistently staying above last week’s close and achieving several new all-time highs. The price action was supportive, but it would be better to see this confirmed next week as trading volumes return to normal following the Independence Day holiday.
However, we might need to be patient, as the market is currently running quite hot, and a cool-down period would be natural. With the trade deal deadline on July 9th, we could see heightened volatility, providing an opportunity for bears to step in. But regardless of how next week unfolds, the long-term trend remains strong with the index in price discovery mode and rising trendlines.
PERFORMANCE RECAP
1. S&P 500 Sector Performance
This week, 11 out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains. Materials led the market with a 4% increase, while Communication Serv. was the laggard, still gaining 0.3%.
Year-to-date, 9 sectors have achieved positive performance. Industrials is the top-performing sector with a 13.4 % gain, while Health Care lags behind, with a 1.5 % loss.
2. S&P 500 Top & Worst Performers
Over the last five trading days, 83% of the stocks in the S&P 500 index rose in value.
Top Performers:
$NKE (Nike, Inc): 22.2%
$FSLR (First Solar Inc): 18.9%
$HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co): 16.2%
$CCL (Carnival Corp): 14.5%
$WYNN (Wynn Resorts Ltd): 14%
Worst Performers:
$ELV (Elevance Health Inc): -6.8%
$PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc): -6.9%
$EXE (Expand Energy Corp): -8.4%
$MOH (Molina Healthcare Inc): -17.7%
$CNC (Centene Corp): -37.8%
In addition, 59 stocks within the S&P 500 reached a new 52-week high, while 9 stocks set new lows. The majority of this week’s highs came from the Technology sector.
Notable Highs:
$NVDA (NVIDIA Corp)
$MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)
$META (Meta Platforms Inc)
$AVGO (Broadcom Inc)
$JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Notable Lows:
$PEP (PepsiCo Inc)
$KHC (Kraft Heinz Co)
$GIS (General Mills, Inc)
$FTV (Fortive Corp)
$ERIE (Erie Indemnity Co)
MARKET MOMENTUM
1. Momentum Review
To evaluate the market's current health, I examine 4 key elements: performance, breadth, trends, and key levels. Healthy bull markets typically feature indices setting new highs, broad market participation, and ascending trend lines.
Performance (POSITIVE 🟢): evaluating recent market performance to gauge the momentum’s strength. Ideally i want to see returns accelerating short-term and index trading less than 5% from its 1-year high
1-month performance: +4.9% 🟢
3-month performance: +10.8% 🟢
vs. 1-year high: 0%🟢
Breadth (POSITIVE 🟢): assessing market participation to understand the health of the trend. Extreme levels (above 80% or below 20%) may indicate overextended trends.
% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 80% (up from 51% last week) 🟢
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 61% (down from 66% last week) 🟢
Trends: analyzing trend strength across multiple timeframes using exponential moving averages, scored on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above suggests solid trends and supports holding a position.
Weekly chart: VERY STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last week)
Daily chart: VERY STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last week)
4-hour chart: VERY STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last week)
Key levels: identifying critical price zones to confirm the current trend or signal a potential reversal.
Support:
5,920 (-5.7%)
6,050 (-3.7%)
6,175 (-1.7%)
Resistance:
6,300 (+0.3%)
6,490 (+3.4%)
6,700 (+6.7%)
2. Post of the Week
This week's momentum analysis is about seasonality, as we just started the month of July. Since 1964, the S&P500 has been up 53% of the time in July, averaging a 0.8% return.
EARNINGS & ECONOMIC REPORTS RECAP
1. Earnings Outlook
Q1 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 14%, rising to 16% when excluding the energy sector.
2025 Full-Year Outlook: Earnings are expected to increase by 9%, in line with the 10-year average growth of 9%.
Analyst Revisions: Over the past month, 53% of all earnings revisions by analysts have been upward adjustments to their outlook.
Valuation: The forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 22.2, above the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.
2. Earnings Season Recap
Out of the 500 S&P 500 companies that have reported first-quarter earnings, 76% exceeded EPS expectations. It is in line with the four-quarter average of 77% and above the historical average of 67%.
3. Economic Reports
It was a short trading week in the US due to the Independence Day holiday, with markets closing early on Thursday and fully shut on Friday. Despite that, the week delivered critical economic updates, most notably the June jobs report.
Key reports included:
Nonfarm Payrolls (Thu): The US economy added 147K jobs in June, beating expectations (111K) and slightly above last month’s revised 144K.
Unemployment Rate (Thu): Ticked down to 4.1%, better than the 4.3% forecast and an improvement from 4.2% in May.
Average Hourly Earnings (Thu): Slowed to +0.2% MoM, below expectations (0.3%) and down from 0.4% the prior month.
MARKET SENTIMENT
Measures of investor sentiment can be helpful as they provide insight into the views and opinions of professional or individual investors. While not definitive predictors of market direction, these measures can serve as a valuable complement to other indicators and analysis tools, helping to paint a more comprehensive picture of the market's current state.
1. AAII Sentiment Survey (Individual Investors)
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) conducts a weekly survey to gauge members' expectations for the stock market over the next six months. Results are published every Wednesday.
In the latest survey, 45% of respondents had a bullish outlook, up from 35% the previous week.
2. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (Institutional Investors)
The Bank of America Bull-Bear Indicator measures investor sentiment based on fund managers' and institutional investors' views. Scores range from 0 (extremely bearish) to 10 (extremely bullish).
The most recent reading was 5.8, a neutral sentiment reading.
3. CNN Fear & Greed Index (Technical)
This daily measure analyzes seven indicators to assess how emotions drive market decisions. Scores range from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed.
The index closed at 78 (Extreme Greed), up from 65 last Friday.
THE WEEK AHEAD
1. Economic Calendar
It will be a calm week on the economic front, with few major data releases scheduled. Key items include the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Treasury bond auctions.
However, markets will remain alert to any developments tied to the July 9 trade deal deadline, which could bring renewed volatility or headlines depending on how negotiations evolve.
2. Earnings Calendar
The earnings season is almost over and 2 company from the S&P 500, including Delta Airlines, is expected to release their quarterly results.
3. Stock Analysis of the Week
Every week, I share my analysis of 1 stock that has reported earnings in recent weeks, focusing on implications for long-term investors. This week, I prepared an analysis of Nike ($NKE).
👨💻 My View: WATCH
Nike has teased a turnaround multiple times since 2022, only to fail each attempt at sustaining its momentum. Every rally has rolled over near the 30-week EMA, keeping the long-term downtrend firmly in place.
Now, once again, the stock is attempting a breakout following a strong earnings report last week. We've seen constructive follow-through this week, with the stock up 6%, after gaining 20% the week before.
However, buyers have been burned before. If this move is for real, we need to see a multi-week rally forming and leading to higher highs. Until then, I remain cautious.
Check out the post for more details about $NKE performance, trend and key levels.
Community Spotlight
This week, I'm glad to feature
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CONCLUSION
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Happy investing!
My Weekly Stock
DISCLAIMER
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Any investments or decisions made based on the information provided in this newsletter are the reader's sole responsibility. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. The author does not assume any responsibility for any losses or damages arising from using the information provided in this newsletter.