Weekly Market Recap (May 12-16): The S&P 500 Breaks Out Above Key Resistance – Can It Push Toward All-Time Highs?

Everything you need to know about last week's markets performance and what to expect next.

Dear readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

Friday means it's time to review the week in the markets. Each week, I dedicate hours to curating this market recap, preparing insightful analysis with clear visuals and a structured layout—making it easy for you to find exactly what you need, week after week. And because it's easy to get swayed by personal bias, I like to let the data do most of the talking.

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Let's dive in!

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SUMMARY

Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:

1. The markets were positive this week, with the S&P 500 up 5.3%, the Nasdaq 7.2%, and the Dow Jones 3.4%. Technology (+8%) and Consumer Cyclical (+7.6%) were the best-performing sectors.

2. The S&P 500's long-term trend is improving, and the short-term momentum is positive. 6,000 is the next resistance, while 5,780 is support.

3. The Q1 earnings season is under way and 460 companies from the S&P 500 index have released their quarterly results, with 76% beating estimates. Earnings are expected to be up 14% in Q1 and 9% in 2025.

4. Market sentiment is at the "Greed" level (71/100) as measured by CNN’s Fear & Greed indicator, while VIX is at a medium value of 17.

5. Earnings reports from Home Depot and Intuit, and the latest PMI readings are scheduled for next week.

My take:

Massive win for the bulls this week as the S&P 500 cleared a major resistance zone and reclaimed key long-term trend lines, most notably, the 30-week EMA, my favorite indicator. We kicked things off with a strong gap-up on Monday after positive tariff news, and the index continued grinding higher throughout the week.

After rising more than 20% since the early April low and posting five straight green candles, we may need some short-term consolidation to digest these gains. That said, as long as we stay above Monday's gap (around 5,780), we're on track to reclaim the 6,000 level, which could open the door for a test of the previous all-time highs.

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PERFORMANCE RECAP

1. S&P 500 Sector Performance

This week, 11 out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains. Technology led the market with a 8% increase, while Health Care was the laggard, dropping 0.3%.

Year-to-date, 8 sectors have achieved positive performance. Industrials is the top-performing sector with a 9.1 % gain, while Health Care lags behind, with a 3.3 % loss.

2. S&P 500 Top & Worst Performers

Over the last five trading days, 89% of the stocks in the S&P 500 index rose in value.

Top Performers:

• $SMCI (Super Micro Computer Inc): 44.3%

• $NRG (NRG Energy Inc): 33.4%

• $FSLR (First Solar Inc): 26.9%

• $DELL (Dell Technologies Inc): 19.1%

• $TSLA (Tesla Inc): 17.3%

Worst Performers:

• $CVS (CVS Health Corp): -6.6%

• $NEM (Newmont Corp): -7.2%

• $HSY (Hershey Company): -7.3%

• $FI (Fiserv, Inc): -9.5%

• $UNH (Unitedhealth Group Inc): -23.3%

In addition, 25 stocks within the S&P 500 reached a new 52-week high, while 13 stocks set new lows. The majority of this week’s highs came from the Industrials sector.

Notable Highs:

• $MA (Mastercard Incorporated)

• $PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc)

• $GE (GE Aerospace)

• $UBER (Uber Technologies Inc)

• $SCHW (Charles Schwab Corp)

Notable Lows:

• $UNH (Unitedhealth Group Inc)

• $MRK (Merck & Co Inc)

• $PEP (PepsiCo Inc)

• $TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc)

• $ELV (Elevance Health Inc)

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MARKET MOMENTUM

1. Momentum Review

To evaluate the market's current health, I examine 4 key elements: performance, breadth, trends, and key levels. Healthy bull markets typically feature indices setting new highs, broad market participation, and ascending trend lines.

1. Performance (POSITIVE 🟢): evaluating recent market performance to gauge the momentum’s strength. Ideally i want to see returns accelerating short-term and index trading less than 5% from its 1-year high

• 1-month performance: +13.0% 🟢

• 3-month performance: -2.5% 🔴

• vs. 1-year high: -3.1%🟢

2. Breadth (POSITIVE 🟢): assessing market participation to understand the health of the trend. Extreme levels (above 80% or below 20%) may indicate overextended trends.

• % of stocks above 200-day moving average: 55% (up from 43% last week) 🟡

• % of stocks above 20-day moving average: 85% (up from 76% last week) 🟢

3. Trends: analyzing trend strength across multiple timeframes using exponential moving averages, scored on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above suggests solid trends and supports holding a position.

• Weekly chart: SOLID ⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last week)

• Daily chart: VERY STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last week)

• 4-hour chart: STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (improving vs last week)

4. Key levels: identifying critical price zones to confirm the current trend or signal a potential reversal.

Support:

• $5,575 (-6.4%)

• $5,700 (-4.3%)

• $5,780 (-3.0%)

Resistance:

• $6,000 (+0.7%)

• $6,175 (+3.2%)

• $6,250 (+4.9%)

2. Post of the Week

This week's momentum analysis focuses on extended trends in the S&P 500, employing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to filter stocks. The RSI is a valuable tool for spotting stocks that are potentially "oversold" (RSI below 30) or "overbought" (RSI above 70). Although I wouldn't rely solely on RSI, it helps identify stocks in extended trends that may be approaching a turning point.

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EARNINGS & ECONOMIC REPORTS RECAP

1. Earnings Outlook

• Q1 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 14%, rising to 16% when excluding the energy sector.

• 2025 Full-Year Outlook: Earnings are expected to increase by 9%, in line with the 10-year average growth of 9%.

• Analyst Revisions: Over the past month, 49% of all earnings revisions by analysts have been upward adjustments to their outlook.

• Valuation: The forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 21.9, above the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.

2. Earnings Season Recap

Out of 460 S&P 500 companies that have reported first-quarter earnings, 76% exceeded EPS expectations. It is in line with the four-quarter average of 77% and above the historical average of 67%.

Below are some notable companies that reported earnings last week. I’ve highlighted their EPS and revenue performance vs estimate, as well as their stock return this week.

One highlight of the week was NRG Energy, the clear winner with double beat on Revenue and EPS. The stock gained 33% for the week.

3. Economic Reports

The week’s main focus was inflation, with CPI and PPI reports coming in softer than expected, fueling hopes that price pressures may be easing.

Key reports included:

• CPI (Tue): Rose 0.2% MoM, below expectations (0.3%) but higher than the previous -0.1%. The YoY CPI slowed to 2.3%, also below the forecast (2.4%) and last month’s 2.4%.

• PPI (Thu): Fell -0.5% MoM, sharply missing the forecast (+0.2%) and down from 0.0% last month, suggesting easing producer price pressures.

• Retail Sales (Thu): Came in at 0.1% MoM, slightly above forecast (0.0%) but far below March’s 1.7% surge.

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MARKET SENTIMENT

Measures of investor sentiment can be helpful as they provide insight into the views and opinions of professional or individual investors. While not definitive predictors of market direction, these measures can serve as a valuable complement to other indicators and analysis tools, helping to paint a more comprehensive picture of the market's current state.

1. AAII Sentiment Survey (Individual Investors)

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) conducts a weekly survey to gauge members' expectations for the stock market over the next six months. Results are published every Wednesday.

In the latest survey, 36% of respondents had a bullish outlook, up from 29% the previous week.

2. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (Institutional Investors)

The Bank of America Bull-Bear Indicator measures investor sentiment based on fund managers' and institutional investors' views. Scores range from 0 (extremely bearish) to 10 (extremely bullish).

The most recent reading was 3.7, a slightly bearish sentiment.

3. CNN Fear & Greed Index (Technical)

This daily measure analyzes seven indicators to assess how emotions drive market decisions. Scores range from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed.

The index closed at 71 (Greed), up from 62 last Friday.

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THE WEEK AHEAD

1. Economic Calendar

It’s a relatively calm week on the economic front, with limited market-moving data scheduled. The main focus will be on the preliminary PMI readings for May, which will offer an early look at activity trends in the manufacturing and services sectors.

Key reports to watch:

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Thu): Last month’s reading reached 50.2, barely in expansion territory.

• S&P Global Services PMI (Thu): Printed 50.8 in April, signaling modest growth in the services sector.

2. Earnings Calendar

The earnings season continues next week, and 17 companies from the S&P 500, including Home Depot and Intuit, are expected to release their quarterly results.

Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with several key indicators I like to monitor:

• Stock Indicators:

  • 3-Month Performance: Assessing recent stock trends.

  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): A reading above 70 suggests overbought conditions, while below 30 indicates oversold.

  • P/E Ratio: A value below 25 often points to a "cheap" valuation or low growth expectations.

• Stock Price Reactions to Earnings:

  • 1-Day Stock Return on Earnings: How the stock performs on its earnings release day.

  • Implied Volatility: The options market's forecast for the expected 1-day stock move after earnings.

3. Stock Analysis of the Week

Every week, I share my analysis of 1 stock that has reported earnings in recent weeks, focusing on implications for long-term investors. This week, I prepared an analysis of Disney ($DIS).

👨‍💻 My View: WATCH

• Disney has traded sideways for 2.5 years and is still far from its 2021 peak. After strong earnings, the stock is gaining momentum and now approaches a key zone ($120–$125) that’s rejected every prior rally.

• A decisive breakout here could open the door to much higher levels — potentially $150–$200. But until that happens, it remains a high-stakes inflection point.

Check out the post for more details about $DIS performance, trend and key levels.

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CONCLUSION

Thank you for reading my Weekly Market Recap, which, I hope, got you ready for the week ahead.

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Thanks again, and I look forward to sharing my market recap with you next week.

Happy investing!

My Weekly Stock

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DISCLAIMER

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Any investments or decisions made based on the information provided in this newsletter are the reader's sole responsibility. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. The author does not assume any responsibility for any losses or damages arising from using the information provided in this newsletter.