Weekly Market Recap (May 27-30): Markets Grind Higher, But Resistance Still Holds
Everything you need to know about last week's markets performance and what to expect next.
Dear readers,
Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.
Friday means it's time to review the week in the markets. Each week, I dedicate hours to curating this market recap, preparing insightful analysis with clear visuals and a structured layout—making it easy for you to find exactly what you need, week after week. And because it's easy to get swayed by personal bias, I like to let the data do most of the talking.
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SUMMARY
Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:
1. The markets were positive this week, with the S&P 500 up 1.9%, the Nasdaq 2%, and the Dow Jones 1.6%. Real Estate (+2.7%) and S&P 500 (+1.9%) were the best-performing sectors.
2. The S&P 500's long-term trend is improving, and the short-term momentum is mixed. 6,000 is the next resistance, while 5,780 is support.
3. The Q1 earnings season is under way and 488 companies from the S&P 500 index have released their quarterly results, with 76% beating estimates. Earnings are expected to be up 14% in Q1 and 8% in 2025.
4. Market sentiment is at the "Greed" level (62/100) as measured by CNN’s Fear & Greed indicator, while VIX is at a medium value of 19.
5. Earnings reports from Broadcom and Lululemon, the latest Non-Farm Payroll report are scheduled for next week.
My take:
Markets resumed their march upward last week, but we still haven’t cleared any major resistance levels. The S&P 500 remains stuck in the same 3-week range, roughly between 5,780 and 6,000. I’d be cautious about chasing any headline-driven moves in either direction within that range, as the risk of getting caught in a fakeout move. We saw a few small examples of that this week, such as the reaction following the state court ruling on Trump tariffs.
That said, I’m not overly concerned, especially as long as we remain above the Monday, May 12th opening gap, when stocks surged on news of a temporary tariff agreement between the U.S. and China.
In summary, it’s encouraging that we’re digesting the strong move off the April lows while staying above key long-term trendlines. But to confirm strength, I’d like to see a clean break above resistance, starting with 6,000 and eventually pushing back toward previous all-time highs.
PERFORMANCE RECAP
1. S&P 500 Sector Performance
This week, 10 out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains. Real Estate led the market with a 2.7% increase, while Energy was the laggard, dropping 0.6%.
Year-to-date, 7 sectors have achieved positive performance. Industrials is the top-performing sector with a 8.4 % gain, while Energy lags behind, with a 4.8 % loss.
2. S&P 500 Top & Worst Performers
Over the last five trading days, 69% of the stocks in the S&P 500 index rose in value.
Top Performers:
$ULTA (Ulta Beauty Inc): 14.9%
$HOLX (Hologic, Inc): 14.1%
$INTU (Intuit Inc): 13.1%
$WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery Inc): 10.5%
$LW (Lamb Weston Holdings Inc): 9.3%
Worst Performers:
$TPL (Texas Pacific Land Corporation): -12.9%
$COO (Cooper Companies, Inc): -13.9%
$CPRT (Copart, Inc): -15.1%
$DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corp): -16.3%
$REGN (Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc): -17.9%
In addition, 27 stocks within the S&P 500 reached a new 52-week high, while 0 stocks set new lows. The majority of this week’s highs came from the Industrials sector.
Notable Highs:
$NFLX (Netflix Inc)
$PM (Philip Morris International Inc)
$GE (GE Aerospace)
$INTU (Intuit Inc)
$BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc)
MARKET MOMENTUM
1. Momentum Review
To evaluate the market's current health, I examine 4 key elements: performance, breadth, trends, and key levels. Healthy bull markets typically feature indices setting new highs, broad market participation, and ascending trend lines.
Performance (POSITIVE 🟢): evaluating recent market performance to gauge the momentum’s strength. Ideally i want to see returns accelerating short-term and index trading less than 5% from its 1-year high
1-month performance: +6.3% 🟢
3-month performance: -0.8% 🟡
vs. 1-year high: -3.9%🟢
Breadth (MIXED 🟡): assessing market participation to understand the health of the trend. Extreme levels (above 80% or below 20%) may indicate overextended trends.
% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 49% (up from 46% last week) 🟡
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 57% (up from 49% last week) 🟢
Trends: analyzing trend strength across multiple timeframes using exponential moving averages, scored on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above suggests solid trends and supports holding a position.
Weekly chart: SOLID ⭐️⭐️⭐️ (stable vs last week)
Daily chart: STRONG ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (stable vs last week)
4-hour chart: MIXED ⭐️⭐️ (stable vs last week)
Key levels: identifying critical price zones to confirm the current trend or signal a potential reversal.
Support:
$5,575 (-5.7%)
$5,700 (-3.6%)
$5,780 (-2.2%)
Resistance:
$6,000 (+1.5%)
$6,175 (+4.5%)
$6,250 (+5.7%)
2. Post of the Week
This week's momentum analysis is about the Mega Caps. Using a combination of performance metrics and technical indicators, I've developed a proprietary algorithm to rank 10 mega-cap stocks. Based on this approach, I've identified Microsoft (MSFT) and Walmart (WMT) as having the best relative momentum currently.
EARNINGS & ECONOMIC REPORTS RECAP
1. Earnings Outlook
Q1 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 14%, rising to 16% when excluding the energy sector.
2025 Full-Year Outlook: Earnings are expected to increase by 8%, slightly below the 10-year average growth of 9%.
Analyst Revisions: Over the past month, 53% of all earnings revisions by analysts have been upward adjustments to their outlook.
Valuation: The forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 21.9, above the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.
2. Earnings Season Recap
Out of 488 S&P 500 companies that have reported first-quarter earnings, 76% exceeded EPS expectations. It is in line with the four-quarter average of 77% and above the historical average of 67%.
Below are some notable companies that reported earnings last week. I’ve highlighted their EPS and revenue performance vs estimate, as well as their stock return this week.
One highlight of the week was Nvidia ($NVDA), with double beat on Revenue and EPS. The stock rallied on the news before giving up part of the gains and finishing the week up 1.7%.
3. Economic Reports
It was a short trading week in the U.S. due to the Memorial Day holiday, but markets still had to digest a few important releases. Key updates included the second estimate of Q1 GDP, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE), and the FOMC meeting minutes—all offering new clues on the Fed's policy outlook.
Key reports included:
FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed): Revealed that a 'wait-and-see' approach remains prevalent due to ongoing economic uncertainty. Notably, trade policy uncertainty was cited as one of the reasons for the cautious stance.
GDP (Thu): The second estimate showed a slightly smaller contraction of -0.2% QoQ, a modest upward revision from the initial -0.3%, but still well below the 2.4% growth seen in Q4.
Core PCE Price Index (Fri): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remained sticky. The YoY reading printed at 2.5%, slightly down from 2.7% last month. The MoM figure rose 0.1%, matching expectations and in line with the previous month.
MARKET SENTIMENT
Measures of investor sentiment can be helpful as they provide insight into the views and opinions of professional or individual investors. While not definitive predictors of market direction, these measures can serve as a valuable complement to other indicators and analysis tools, helping to paint a more comprehensive picture of the market's current state.
1. AAII Sentiment Survey (Individual Investors)
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) conducts a weekly survey to gauge members' expectations for the stock market over the next six months. Results are published every Wednesday.
In the latest survey, 33% of respondents had a bullish outlook, down from 38% the previous week.
2. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (Institutional Investors)
The Bank of America Bull-Bear Indicator measures investor sentiment based on fund managers' and institutional investors' views. Scores range from 0 (extremely bearish) to 10 (extremely bullish).
The most recent reading was 3.7, a slightly bearish sentiment.
3. CNN Fear & Greed Index (Technical)
This daily measure analyzes seven indicators to assess how emotions drive market decisions. Scores range from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed.
The index closed at 62 (Greed), down from 64 last Friday.
THE WEEK AHEAD
1. Economic Calendar
The week ahead will be all about the US labor market, with several important job data expected on Friday.
Key reports to watch:
Fed Chair Powell Speech (Mon): Markets will look for any updated views on inflation, growth risks, and policy direction, especially ahead of Friday’s key labor data.
Nonfarm Payrolls (Fri): Consensus expects 130K new jobs in May, a slowdown from April’s 177K.
Unemployment Rate (Fri): Expected to hold steady at 4.2%.
Average Hourly Earnings (Fri): Wage growth is forecast at +0.3% MoM, up from last month’s 0.2%.
2. Earnings Calendar
The earnings season continues next week, and 8 companies from the S&P 500, including Broadcom and Lululemon, are expected to release their quarterly results.
Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with several key indicators I like to monitor:
Stock Indicators:
3-Month Performance: Assessing recent stock trends.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A reading above 70 suggests overbought conditions, while below 30 indicates oversold.
P/E Ratio: A value below 25 often points to a "cheap" valuation or low growth expectations.
Stock Price Reactions to Earnings:
1-Day Stock Return on Earnings: How the stock performs on its earnings release day.
Implied Volatility: The options market's forecast for the expected 1-day stock move after earnings.
3. Stock Analysis of the Week
Every week, I share my analysis of 1 stock that has reported earnings in recent weeks, focusing on implications for long-term investors. This week, I prepared an analysis of Nvidia ($NVDA).
👨💻 My View: WATCH
After a shaky Q1, Nvidia has staged a powerful comeback, rallying over 60% from its April low. That surge brought it back above the 30-week EMA and triggered a MACD crossover—two bullish signals.
This week’s earnings strengthened the case. But the real challenge is to breakout from the multi-month range and hit a new all-time high.
I’ve missed the initial leg and won’t chase here. A clean breakout above the previous highs is my signal to act.
Check out the post for more details about $NVDA performance, trend and key levels.
Community Spotlight
This week, I am glad to feature
, the writer behind The Daily Dollar—a newsletter focused on deep, data-backed insights into Bitcoin and crypto investing.In a recent article, he explored a question that’s been on every investor’s mind: Is this the beginning of Bitcoin’s next major bull run—or just another trap designed to catch latecomers off guard?
This wasn’t about speculation. He broke down what the latest data is showing, how institutional players are positioning, and why both bullish and cautious perspectives deserve attention right now.
If you find this kind of analysis helpful, you can subscribe to The Daily Dollar and stay one step ahead of the media.
CONCLUSION
Thank you for reading my Weekly Market Recap, which, I hope, got you ready for the week ahead.
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Thanks again, and I look forward to sharing my market recap with you next week.
Happy investing!
My Weekly Stock
DISCLAIMER
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Any investments or decisions made based on the information provided in this newsletter are the reader's sole responsibility. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. The author does not assume any responsibility for any losses or damages arising from using the information provided in this newsletter.