Weekly Market Recap (Nov 17-21): Friday Brings a Bounce After a Red Week. Can Bulls Flip the Trend?
Everything you need to know about last week's markets performance and what to expect next.
Dear readers,
Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.
Friday means it's time to review the week in the markets. Each week, I dedicate hours to curating this market recap, preparing insightful analysis with clear visuals and a structured layout, so you can find exactly what you need, week after week. And because it's easy to get swayed by personal bias, I like to let the data do most of the talking.
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SUMMARY
Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:
1. The markets were negative this week, with the S&P 500 down -2%, the Nasdaq -2.7%, and the Dow Jones -1.9%. Health Care (+1.9%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.8%) were the best-performing sectors.
2. The S&P 500's long-term trend is positive, but the short-term momentum is negative. 6,770 is the next resistance, while 6,520 is support.
3. The Q3 earnings season is underway and 472 companies from the S&P 500 index have released their quarterly results, with 83% beating estimates. Earnings are expected to be up 15% in Q3 2025 and 14% in 2026.
4. Market sentiment is at the "Extreme Fear" level (10/100) as measured by CNN’s Fear & Greed indicator, while VIX is at a very high value of 23.
5. Earnings report from Dell Tehnologies, and the PCE price index, and Retail sale data are scheduled for next week.
My take:
It was another challenging week marked by relentless whipsaws and elevated volatility. Notably, markets gapped up strongly on Thursday following Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings, only to completely reverse course and close in the red, for a remarkable 5% intraday swing that underscores just how unstable the current environment is. Friday finally brought some relief with a strong bounce.
While oversold conditions make rallies likely, I need to see real follow-through before calling a swing low. That means sustained strength over multiple days, starting with a reclaim of the 21-day EMA (currently ~6,680 on the S&P 500). And the ultimate test would be breaking above the previous high. Without these confirmations, any bounce could be another head fake that brings another lower low. I’m also keeping a close eye on Bitcoin and the VIX for early signs of a return in risk appetite.
This pullback, while painful, is a necessary consolidation after seven straight months of gains. I still believe we can rally into year-end, but I’ll let the market prove it first. We may not get final confirmation until the December FOMC meeting in three weeks.
PERFORMANCE RECAP
1. S&P 500 Sector Performance
This week, 3 out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains. Health Care led the market with a 1.9% increase, while Technology was the laggard, dropping 5.2%.
Year-to-date, 10 sectors have achieved positive performance. Technology is the top-performing sector with a 17.5 % gain, while Consumer Defensive lags behind, with a 0.9 % loss.
2. S&P 500 Top & Worst Performers
Over the last five trading days, 44% of the stocks in the S&P 500 index rose in value.
Top Performers:
$SOLV (Solventum Corp): 9.6%
$REGN (Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc): 9%
$ROST (Ross Stores, Inc): 8.4% $
GOOG (Alphabet Inc): 8.2%
$PCAR (Paccar Inc): 7.7%
Worst Performers:
$DDOG (Datadog Inc): -14.8%
$COIN (Coinbase Global Inc): -15.4%
$MU (Micron Technology Inc): -16%
$J (Jacobs Solutions Inc): -16.6%
$AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc): -17.4%
In addition, 25 stocks within the S&P 500 reached a new 52-week high, while 28 stocks set new lows. The majority of this week’s lows came from the Technology sector.
Notable Highs:
$GOOG (Alphabet Inc)
$LLY (Lilly(Eli) & Co)
$JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)
$CSCO (Cisco Systems, Inc)
$MU (Micron Technology Inc)
Notable Lows:
$CRM (Salesforce Inc)
$LIN (Linde Plc)
$ADBE (Adobe Inc)
$ADP (Automatic Data Processing Inc)
$MSI (Motorola Solutions Inc)
MARKET MOMENTUM
1. Momentum Review
To evaluate the market's current health, I examine 4 key elements: performance, breadth, trends, and key levels. Healthy bull markets typically feature indices setting new highs, broad market participation, and ascending trend lines.
Performance (MIXED 🟡): evaluating recent market performance to gauge the momentum’s strength. Ideally, I want to see returns accelerating short-term and index trading less than 5% from its 1-year high
1-month performance: -1.9% 🔴
3-month performance: +2.6% 🟢
vs. 1-year high: -4.5% 🟢
Breadth (MIXED 🟡): assessing market participation to understand the health of the trend. Extreme levels (above 80% or below 20%) may indicate overextended trends.
% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 53% (down from 56% last week) 🟡
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 47% (up from 42% last week) 🟡
Trends: analyzing trend strength across multiple timeframes using exponential moving averages, scored on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 3 or above suggests solid trends and supports holding a position.
Weekly chart: UPTREND ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (worsening vs last week)
Daily chart: STRONG DOWNTREND (worsening vs last week)
4-hour chart: STRONG DOWNTREND (worsening vs last week)
Key levels: identifying critical price zones to confirm the current trend or signal a potential reversal.
Support:
6,200 (-6.1%)
6,450 (-2.3%)
6,520 (-1.3%)
Resistance:
6,770 (+2.5%)
6,920 (+4.8%)
7,000 (+6.0%)
2. Post of the Week
This week’s momentum analysis focuses on extended trends in the Nasdaq, employing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to filter stocks. The RSI is a valuable tool for spotting stocks that are potentially “oversold” (RSI below 30) or “overbought” (RSI above 70). Although I wouldn’t rely solely on RSI, it helps identify stocks in extended trends that may be approaching a turning point.
EARNINGS & ECONOMIC REPORTS RECAP
1. Economic Reports
This week’s headlines were dominated by the FOMC minutes and the long-delayed September job report, which was finally released after multiple postponements due to the government shutdown.
FOMC Minutes: revealed a divided Fed, with “many” participants believing a December rate cut would not be appropriate, while “several” others supported one, highlighting the ongoing uncertainty within the committee.
Nonfarm Payrolls: came in at +119K, stronger than expected (53K) and marking a notable improvement from the previous –4K.
Unemployment Rate: ticked up slightly to 4.4% (from 4.3%), suggesting the labor market remains resilient but is gradually cooling.
2. Earnings Outlook
Q3 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 15%, rising to 16% when excluding the energy sector.
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Earnings are expected to increase by 14%, above the 10-year average growth of 9%.
Analyst Revisions: Over the past month, 65% of all earnings revisions by analysts have been upward adjustments to their outlook.
Valuation: The forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 22.1, above the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.
3. Earnings Season Recap
Out of the 472 S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter earnings, 83% exceeded EPS expectations. It exceeds the four-quarter average of 77% and surpasses the historical average of 67%.
Below are some notable companies that reported earnings last week. I’ve highlighted their EPS and revenue performance vs estimate, as well as their stock return this week.
One highlight of the week was Nvidia ($NVDA), which beat earnings estimates and raise its forecast. Still, the stock lost 6% for the week.
MARKET SENTIMENT
Measures of investor sentiment can be helpful as they provide insight into the views and opinions of professional or individual investors. While not definitive predictors of market direction, these measures can serve as a valuable complement to other indicators and analysis tools, helping to paint a more comprehensive picture of the market's current state.
1. AAII Sentiment Survey (Individual Investors)
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) conducts a weekly survey to gauge members' expectations for the stock market over the next six months. Results are published every Wednesday.
In the latest survey, 33% of respondents had a bullish outlook, up from 32% the previous week.
2. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (Institutional Investors)
The Bank of America Bull-Bear Indicator measures investor sentiment based on the views of fund managers and institutional investors. Scores range from 0 (extremely bearish) to 10 (extremely bullish).
The most recent reading was 6.3, indicating a bullish sentiment.
3. CNN Fear & Greed Index (Technical)
This daily measure analyzes seven indicators to assess how emotions drive market decisions. Scores range from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed.
The index closed at 10 (Extreme Fear), down from 22 last Friday.
THE WEEK AHEAD
1. Economic Calendar
It will be a holiday-shortened week, with markets closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and open only half a day on Friday. Despite that, it’s still a busy calendar, as agencies continue clearing the backlog of reports delayed by the shutdown.
Key reports to watch this week:
Retail Sales (MoM, Sep): forecast 0.4%, previous 0.6%
Core Retail Sales (MoM, Sep): forecast 0.3%, previous 0.7%
PPI (MoM, Sep): forecast 0.3%, previous –0.1%
GDP (QoQ, Q3): previous 3.8%
Core PCE Price Index (MoM, Sep): forecast 0.2%, previous 0.2%
Core PCE Price Index (YoY, Sep): forecast 2.9%, previous 2.9%
2. Earnings Calendar
The earnings season is underway, and 11 S&P 500 companies, including Dell Technologies, are expected to report their quarterly results.
Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with several key indicators I like to monitor:
3-Month Performance: Assessing recent stock trends.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A reading above 70 suggests overbought conditions, while below 30 indicates oversold.
P/E Ratio: A value below 25 often points to a "cheap" valuation or low growth expectations.
Implied Volatility: The options market's forecast for the expected 1-day stock move after earnings.
3. Stock Analysis of the Week
Every week, I share my analysis of 1 stock that has reported earnings in recent weeks, using my momentum research model. This week, I prepared an analysis of Nvidia ($NVDA), focusing on the weekly chart (long-term time horizon).
👨💻 My View : HOLD
November hasn’t been kind to Nvidia. After briefly trading above $210, the stock has seen a sharp pullback, and even a blockbuster earnings report couldn’t reverse the short-term weakness.
Stepping back, the long-term trend remains positive, but warning signs are piling up. The trend lines are flattening, and the MACD just confirmed a bearish crossover, a signal that momentum is slowing.
All in all, I still view this as a hold, but it’s a time for caution, especially as we see how the stock reacts over the next few weeks.
Check out the post for more details about $NVDA performance, trend, and key levels.
Community Spotlight
Each week, I share the work of another publication here on Substack that I think offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature Golden Bear Capital.
Let’s hear it directly from the team at Golden Bear Capital :
“Every entrepreneur’s journey has a second act. For the three of us, that new chapter began after we sold the companies we had poured our lives into. With the freedom to choose our next adventure, we turned to the world that had always fascinated us: the global markets.
We put our own capital to work, not as passive investors, but as active traders and analysts.
Our craft is swing trading, a discipline of precision and timing honed by studying the masters, from the foundational wisdom of legends like Mark Minervini and Stan Weinstein to the aggressive tactics of Dan Zanger and the modern brilliance of Kristjan Kullamägi.
Yet, we see the market through a unique lens.
Having been founders ourselves, we know that behind every stock chart is a story of ambition, innovation, and a vision for the future. This is where our true passion lies: analyzing the numbers to uncover the game-changing trends and companies before they hit the mainstream. Our successful deep dives into pioneers like Nebius, Tempus AI, Twist Biosciences, and the burgeoning Space Economy are testaments to this founder-first approach.
About a year ago, almost on a whim, we decided to open up our notebooks and share our findings here on Substack.
What started as a simple experiment has, to our surprise and delight, blossomed into a thriving community. “
If you want to learn more about their approach, here is the link to one of their latest post:
CONCLUSION
Thank you for reading my Weekly Market Recap, which I hope has prepared you for the week ahead.
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Thanks again, and I look forward to sharing my market recap with you next week.
Happy investing!
My Weekly Stock
DISCLAIMER
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Any investments or decisions made based on the information provided in this newsletter are the reader's sole responsibility. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. The author does not assume any responsibility for any losses or damages arising from using the information provided in this newsletter.
Keep up these recaps. They are good.
I’ve been reading these since coming to Substack, maybe 1,5 years ago? Sometimes more often, sometimes a month break. But I still check when I see them.
So keep doing the boring work, it is really good ✌🏻
Thank you for the mention!❤️💪