Weekly Trading Update #16 (Apr 15)
The only stocks you need to watch this week, hand-picked by my proprietary algorithm
Dear subscribers,
Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where we blend in-depth market analysis with proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? Help you navigate the financial markets with unbiased, data-driven insights that you can act on.
As we head into a new week, it's time for my Weekly Trading Update! Stay tuned to learn more about how my trading strategies work and my performance.
Let’s get started!
THIS WEEK’S SNAPSHOT
Momentum Outlook: Markets booked a 2nd red week after inflation reports came in higher than expected. Most trend lines and indicators suggest we might finally get that pullback many called for.
Weekly Momentum Pick: Alphabet (GOOG) is my stock pick for this week, a leading company within the Communication Cyclical sector, trading less than 1% from its 1-year peak. Since 2019, my momentum picks have returned more than 400%.
Swing Trade Portfolio: 53% of my portfolio is invested across 14 positions. Meta Platforms (META, +56%) and NVIDIA (NVDA, +85%) are the best 2 performers. Since its inception in October 2023, my Swing Trade Portfolio has returned 25%.
Trading Week Reflection:
Whatever I write might be irrelevant by the time the market opens, given the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. I am planning several exits on Monday, driven by Friday's close and not impacted by this weekend's events. The Swing Trade and the Macro ETF portfolios should provide sufficient diversification across segments and sectors to handle a significant pullback.
In turbulent times, it's super important to:
Avoid overreacting, but also be decisive when required.
Follow your trading plan and avoid making decisions based on emotion.
Identify outperformers during this period, as they may lead the next market rally.
Trade safely in the coming week, which will likely be another challenging one.
WEEKLY MOMENTUM PICK
My Approach
I use a proprietary algorithm to collect momentum indicators for each company on my watchlist, such as performance over the last one and three months and the current price vs. their respective 52-week high and low. I then rank the stocks based on each indicator, assigning a score from highest to lowest, and the stock with the highest average score becomes my pick for the week.
From there, I developed a simple trading principle: I buy one stock on Monday at the market open and sell it by Friday's close. I focus on the 30 stocks from the Dow Jones (+ Alphabet). Because the strategy rewards winners, the algorithm usually selects the same stock for multiple weeks in a row.
My Performance
Since 2019, my stock picks have consistently generated strong returns, both in absolute terms and compared to the S&P 500 index. The cumulative return on my weekly momentum picks has been +434% since 2019 (when traded with stop-loss), outperforming the S&P 500 by 5x.
My stock pick was down 3.6% last week, bringing my 2024 performance to 6%.
My Momentum Pick for This Week
My stock pick for week #16 of 2024 is Alphabet (GOOG). The stock has risen 13% in the past month and 11% in the past quarter and is now trading less than 1% from its 52-week high. That makes GOOG the stock with the best momentum profile on my watchlist.
I use a 2% stop-loss and a 6% profit target. Stop-losses are critical elements of any trading plan, particularly in periods of market volatility.
Confidence Level: MEDIUM
Momentum Conditions: Medium | Algo Score: 96
The confidence level is a qualitative assessment based on my experience trading these stock picks. Best-performing picks typically involve 1) supportive broader market conditions and 2) an algo score below 94, meaning the stock has room to run further.
That’s it for the free part of my Weekly Trading Update.
I hope you enjoyed my analysis so far. If you’d like to see more in-depth insights, subscribe to the paid version and get complete access to my short and long-term portfolios!
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