Weekly Trading Update #30 (Jul 22)

The only stocks you need to watch this week, hand-picked by my proprietary algorithm

Dear subscribers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where we blend in-depth market analysis with proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? Help you navigate the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights that you can act on.

As we head into a new week, it's time for my Weekly Trading Update! Stay tuned to learn more about how my trading strategies work and my performance.

Remember, until the end of July, you can enjoy a 30% discount on your annual subscription and unlock access to all my trading and investing portfolios!

Let’s get started!

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THIS WEEK’S SNAPSHOT

• Momentum Outlook: The S&P 500 closed its worst week in three months as the sell-off in tech intensified and dragged the whole index down.

• Weekly Momentum Pick: Amgen Inc. ($AMGN) is my stock pick for this week, a leading company within the Healthcare sector, trading less than 3% from its 1-year high. Since 2019, my momentum picks have returned more than 500%.

• Swing Trade Portfolio: 57% of my portfolio is invested across 16 positions. Walmart ($WMT, +17%) and Nivida (NVDA, +32%) are the best 2 performers. Since its inception in October 2023, my Swing Trade Portfolio has returned 28%.

Trading Week Reflection:

Last week was one of the most active trading weeks for me. I gradually exited my remaining tech positions, and I am glad to have locked in some profits around the top two weeks ago. I have also increased my exposure to other segments, which performed well until Wednesday before suffering in sync with the broader market.

Many mega caps have followed a similar pattern: they rallied in May/June and then approached critical resistance and/or psychological levels in early July. This resolved in a sell-off and loss of critical short-term trend lines.

Looking ahead, the jury is still out on whether other segments can take the lead while tech takes a breather. I am keen to keep some exposure, but now, more than ever, risk management will be paramount.

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WEEKLY MOMENTUM PICK

My Approach

I use a proprietary algorithm to collect momentum indicators for each company on my watchlist, such as performance over the last one and three months and the current price vs. their respective 52-week high and low. I then rank the stocks based on each indicator, assigning a score from highest to lowest, and the stock with the highest average score becomes my pick for the week.

From there, I developed a simple trading principle: I buy one stock on Monday at the market open and sell it by Friday's close. I focus on the 30 stocks from the Dow Jones (+ Alphabet). Because the strategy rewards winners, the algorithm usually selects the same stock for multiple weeks in a row.

My Performance

Since 2019, my stock picks have consistently generated strong returns, both in absolute terms and compared to the S&P 500 index. The cumulative return on my weekly momentum picks has been +570% since 2019 (when traded with stop-loss), outperforming the S&P 500 by 4x.

My stock pick was up 1.0% last week (6.0% with my profit target), bringing my 2024 performance to 33%.

My Momentum Pick for This Week

My stock pick for week #30 of 2024 is Amgen Inc. ($AMGN). The stock has risen 8% in the past month and 26% in the past quarter and is now trading less than 3% from its 52-week high. That makes $AMGN the stock with the best momentum profile on my watchlist.

I use a 2% stop-loss and a 6% profit target. Stop-losses are critical elements of any trading plan, particularly in periods of market volatility. I use stop-losses as price levels of interest to manage my positions, but I don’t set them up as automated orders. As a principle, I never sell on Mondays to give the trade a chance to work out.

Confidence Level: MEDIUM

Momentum Conditions: Medium | Algo Score: 89

The confidence level is a qualitative assessment based on my experience trading these stock picks. Best-performing picks typically involve 1) supportive broader market conditions and 2) an algo score below 94, meaning the stock has room to run further.

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That’s it for the free part of my Weekly Trading Update.

I hope you enjoyed my analysis so far. If you’d like to see more in-depth insights, subscribe to the paid version and get complete access to my short and long-term portfolios!

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