Weekly Trading Update #59 (Feb 17, 2025)

Momentum-driven stock picks and swing trades, powered by my proprietary research.

Dear readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

As we head into a new week, it means it's time for my Weekly Trading Update! In this post, I'll cover my two short-term trading strategies: Weekly Momentum Pick and Swing Trade Portfolio. Stay tuned to learn about my approach, recent moves (or planned ones), and how my strategies have performed.

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Let's dive in!

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SUMMARY

• Weekly Momentum Pick (my short-term tactical play): 

  • $GS (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc) is my stock pick for this week, a leading company within the Financial sector, trading 1% from its 1-year high

  • Last week’s pick lost 2.0%, bringing my 2025 performance to +6%.

  • Since 2019, my momentum picks have achieved a 62% hit rate and returned 704%—outperforming the S&P 500 by 5x.

• Swing Trade Portfolio (my comprehensive mid-term strategy): 

  • Last week, I exited 2 positions and initiated 0 new ones. For the week ahead, I’m planning 3 transactions.

  • The portfolio is currently allocated as follows: 16% in Growth, 39% in Cyclical, 25% in Defensive, and 20% in Cash. Last week, I reduced my exposure in the growth and cyclicals segments.

  • I own 17 positions, with 10 currently in profit. The top performers are Amazon ($AMZN, +27%) and Meta Platforms (META, +26%).

  • Since its inception in October 2023, my Swing Trade Portfolio has returned 35%.

Trading Week Reflection:

As the market has been choppy for the past two months, it’s been a challenging environment for a swing trader like me, who enjoys clean-cut trends, whether positive or negative. In conditions like these, sometimes the best move is to slow down, as overreacting can do more harm than good. That’s exactly what I applied last week, making no new transactions and focusing more on the broader market to see how the index digested key economic reports.

I’ll be making some adjustments and rebalancing slightly toward growth this week. However, I’m not yet fully convinced we’re done with the sideways trading. I’ll continue to take a balanced approach and to be patient where it makes sense.

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1. WEEKLY MOMENTUM PICK

Approach

I use a proprietary algorithm to evaluate momentum indicators for each company on my watchlist, including the 1-month and 3-month returns and the performance relative to their 52-week high and low. Each stock is then ranked based on these indicators, with a score assigned from highest to lowest. The stock with the highest average score becomes my pick for the week.

My trading plan is straightforward: I buy the stock pick at the market open on Monday and sell it by Friday's close. This strategy focuses on the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones (plus Alphabet). As the algorithm rewards consistent winners, it is not uncommon for the same stock to be selected for multiple weeks in a row.

Performance

Since 2019, my stock picks have delivered consistently strong returns, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. The cumulative return on my weekly momentum picks stands at +704% (when traded with a stop-loss), surpassing the S&P 500 by 5x.

Last week, my stock pick lost 2.0%, bringing my 2025 performance to 6%.

Momentum Pick of the Week

My stock pick for week #7 of 2025 is $GS (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc). The stock has gained 9% in the past month and 11% in the past quarter, currently trading less than 1% from its 52-week high. That makes $GS the stock with the best momentum profile on my watchlist.

The entry price is always Monday's market open. I then calculate a 6% profit target and a 2% stop-loss limit based on the entry price. These levels are used as performance benchmarks. If the price breaches the stop-loss or profit target during the week, I assume an exit at that level. I don't sell on Monday if the stop-loss is hit, but I sell if the profit target is reached. I exit at Friday's close if none of these conditions are met.

While my personal entry and exit prices may vary slightly— for better or worse, the simplified approach makes tracking performance clearer and easier to replicate.

Confidence Level: HIGH

• Long-Term Trend: Positive

• Short-term Momentum: Positive

• Algo Score: 93

The confidence level reflects my qualitative assessment based on my experience with these stock picks. The best-performing picks often exhibit two key traits:

1. Supportive broader market conditions.

2. An algo score below 94, indicating the stock still has room to run.