Weekly Trading Update #63 (Mar 17, 2025)

Momentum-driven stock picks and swing trades, powered by my proprietary research.

Dear readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where in-depth market analysis meets proven momentum-based trading strategies. My mission? To help you win in the markets with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

As we head into a new week, it means it's time for my Weekly Trading Update! In this post, I'll cover my two short-term trading strategies: Weekly Momentum Pick and Swing Trade Portfolio. Stay tuned to learn about my approach, recent moves (or planned ones), and how my strategies have performed.

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Let's dive in!

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SUMMARY

• Weekly Momentum Pick (my short-term tactical play): 

  • $TRV (Travelers Companies Inc) is my stock pick for this week, a leading company within the Financial sector, trading 3% from its 1-year high

  • Last week’s pick lost 2.0%, bringing my 2025 performance to -2%.

  • Since 2019, my momentum picks have achieved a 62% hit rate and returned 641%—outperforming the S&P 500 by 5x.

• Swing Trade Portfolio (my comprehensive mid-term strategy): 

  • Last week, I exited 5 positions. For the week ahead, I’m planning no new transactions.

  • The portfolio is currently allocated as follows: 0% in Growth, 11% in Cyclical, 4% in Defensive, and 15% in Cash. Last week, I reduced my exposure across growth and cyclicals.

  • I own 3 positions, with 2 currently in profit. The top performers are McDonald’s ($MCD, +3%) and Procter & Gamble ($PG, +1%),

  • Since its inception in October 2023, my Swing Trade Portfolio has returned 25%.

Trading Week Reflection:

We ended the week on a high note, but this is just Day 1 of a potential rally. I'll remain cautious unless this develops into a sustained, multi-day move—and even then, a full recovery will likely take time.

That said, Friday's bounce gives us something to work with, particularly for the cyclicals and growth names I cover weekly. The key is staying above last week's lows and working our way higher, ideally reclaiming the 21-day EMA—the ultimate short-term test for the bulls.

With only 15% cash invested in the Swing Trade portfolio, I'll mostly observe from the sidelines and await confirmation of a swing low before deploying more capital.

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1. WEEKLY MOMENTUM PICK

Approach

I use a proprietary algorithm to evaluate momentum indicators for each company on my watchlist, including the 1-month and 3-month returns and the performance relative to their 52-week high and low. Each stock is then ranked based on these indicators, with a score assigned from highest to lowest. The stock with the highest average score becomes my pick for the week.

My trading plan is straightforward: I buy the stock pick at the market open on Monday and sell it by Friday's close. This strategy focuses on the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones (plus Alphabet). As the algorithm rewards consistent winners, it is not uncommon for the same stock to be selected for multiple weeks in a row.

Performance

Since 2019, my stock picks have delivered consistently strong returns, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. The cumulative return on my weekly momentum picks stands at +641% (when traded with a stop-loss), surpassing the S&P 500 by 5x.

Last week, my stock pick lost 2.0%, bringing my 2025 performance to -2%.

Momentum Pick of the Week

My stock pick for week #11 of 2025 is $TRV (Travelers Companies Inc). The stock has gained 8% in the past month and 5% in the past quarter, currently trading less than 4% from its 52-week high. That makes $TRV the stock with the best momentum profile on my watchlist.

The entry price is always Monday's market open. I then calculate a 6% profit target and a 2% stop-loss limit based on the entry price. These levels are used as performance benchmarks. If the price breaches the stop-loss or profit target during the week, I assume an exit at that level. I don't sell on Monday if the stop-loss is hit, but I sell if the profit target is reached. I exit at Friday's close if none of these conditions are met.

While my personal entry and exit prices may vary slightly— for better or worse, the simplified approach makes tracking performance clearer and easier to replicate.

Confidence Level: LOW

• Long-Term Trend: Mixed

• Short-term Momentum: Weak

• Algo Score: 95

The confidence level reflects my qualitative assessment based on my experience with these stock picks. The best-performing picks often exhibit two key traits:

1. Supportive broader market conditions.

2. An algo score below 94, indicating the stock still has room to run.

New Research Strategy: MOMENTUM BOUNCE

I have been paper trading this strategy for the past three years, using the same momentum-based algorithm but applying it differently. The approach has delivered a cumulative 300% return with a 60% hit rate over that period. Given the results, I am tracking it live and including it in my updates.

The strategy remains one stock per week, bought on Monday and sold on Friday. The stock selection is based on my algorithm but focuses on the weakest-ranked stock within a universe of U.S.-listed stocks with a market cap above $150B.

In bull markets, I go long, expecting a bounce from oversold conditions. In bear markets, I either stay on the sidelines or short the stock, anticipating further downside.

I expect higher volatility than my usual momentum picks, and I don't use stop-losses at this stage. Given the higher risk, I will trade smaller amounts.

Last week's momentum bounce pick lost 1.0%, bringing the performance in 2025 to +1%.

My pick for the week ahead is $ADBE (Adobe).